Episode #231 - 2025 In Review

Tu and Lei close out 2025 with a sweeping, on-the-ground review of the most consequential year yet for China’s EV, AV, and mobility ecosystem — and why its ripple effects are now impossible for the rest of the world to ignore.  

From CES to Shanghai, Munich, and New York, the hosts reflect on firsthand experiences that defined the year: China’s EV export surge, the maturation of robotaxis, the cooling of the domestic price war, and the emergence of clear winners — and vulnerabilities — among Chinese and global automakers.

They break down why BYD became a true global volume force, how XPeng, Geely, and Zeekr gained momentum, why NIO’s long game is finally paying off, and what the rise of autonomous mobility outside China (Waymo, Baidu, WeRide, Pony.ai) means heading into 2026.

The episode also revisits major inflection points:
 • Chinese EV exports flooding Europe, Latin America, Russia, and the UK
 • The beginning of an exported price war
 • Robotaxis moving from pilots to real commercial expansion
 • Why average vehicle prices topping $50,000 in the U.S. is unsustainable
 • How geopolitics, tariffs, and supply chains reshaped strategy
 • Why 2026 could be the year autonomy truly breaks through

Candid, data-driven, and reflective — this episode connects the dots on how 2025 reshaped the global auto industry and sets the stage for what comes next.

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China EVs & More, China EV year end review 2025, Tu Le, Lei Xing, Sino Auto Insights, BYD global expansion, BYD exports 2025, XPeng growth 2025, Geely Zeekr privatization, NIO battery swapping road trip, Chinese EV exports Europe, Chinese EV exports Latin America, EV price war China, EV price war Europe, robotaxi expansion 2025, Waymo expansion, Baidu Apollo robotaxi, WeRide Uber partnership, Pony.ai autonomous driving, AV commercialization 2026, global EV market outlook, China auto industry 2025, EV tariffs and geopolitics, autonomous vehicles China vs US, CES 2025 China EVs, Shanghai Auto Show 2025, IAA Mobility Munich China EVs, World Car of the Year BYD, Stella Li World Car Person of the Year

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Tags

China EVs & More, China auto industry, Chinese EVs, EV market 2025, Tu Le, Lei Xing, Sino Auto Insights, BYD, XPeng, NIO, Geely, Zeekr, Li Auto, Leapmotor, Xiaomi EV, Huawei HIMA, AITO, EV exports, Chinese EV exports, EV price war, global EV market, electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles, robotaxi, Waymo, Baidu Apollo, WeRide, Pony.ai, battery swapping, NIO battery swap, CATL, CES 2025, Shanghai Auto Show, IAA Mobility Munich, EV geopolitics, future of cars

Transcript

Tu Le (00:10.577)
 Hi everyone and welcome to the China EVs and more year end review with my co-host Lei Xing. I will go over and Lei Xing and I will go over the week's most important. Actually, let me start over. Hi everyone and welcome to the China EVs and more year end review where Lei and I will go over the year's most interesting and important news coming out of the
 
 global EV, AV and mobility sectors. And now for most of you that have followed us for more than a year, you know that really just means the China EV, AV and mobility sector. We'll open the room up at around the 40 or 50 minute mark to anyone who's keen to ask us any questions. So feel free to post them into the chat and we'll get to them at the end of the show. What Lei and I discuss today.
 
 is based on our opinions and should not be taken as investment advice. For those that are new to the show, welcome. And to our loyal listeners and viewers, welcome back. We ask that you help us get the word out about this podcast to other enthusiasts. And of course, tune in again. Will we have another episode this year? Maybe, maybe we will.
 
 Lei Xing (01:32.11)
 Probably this is the concluding
 
 Tu Le (01:34.775)
 Okay, so that must mean that the first episode in 2026 is what to expect in the year 2026 episode. tune in again in two weeks, three weeks. My name is Tu Le I am the managing director at Sino Auto Insights, a global management consultancy that helps organizations bring innovative and tech focused products and services to the transportation and mobility sectors. I write a free weekly newsletter.
 
 that we pull some of our discussion topics from. You can sign up for it at sinoautoinsights.substack.com, which of course I encourage you all to do. Finally, Kinda sorta has his office set up. can you please, and been studying for this episode Lei can you please introduce yourself?
 
 Lei Xing (02:30.048)
 Yes sir, good morning. My name is Lei Xing, former chief editor of China Auto Review, and this is episode 232, a Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, Happy New Year, How Did This Year Go By So Fast episode of China EVs & More. And I've got my red
 
 crew neck on in the holiday spirit. This is actually my daughter's volleyball crew neck shirt. It happens to be red. Yeah. So 2025, how do we begin? mean,
 
 Tu Le (03:09.006)
 man, she's as big as dad now, huh? Wow.
 
 Lei Xing (03:24.078)
 We've done this, what? is our, we started in 2021. This is our one, two, three, four, fifth year of doing Chinese. Yeah. And if we go back some years back, remember there's this famous comment made by Mary Barra who could be in her final days as a CEO.
 
 Tu Le (03:31.631)
 It's a five years, Five years.
 
 Lei Xing (03:52.396)
 She said the industry will change over the next five years more than it has over last 50. And for us talking about Chinese EVs more, the industry changes the next two days more than the past week. That's our deal, right? Because it's a constant process of events, news, controversies.
 
 new product launches and when we say Time flies when you're having fun for us. It's time flies when we talk about China and the global EV/AV & mobility sectors Just kind of starting off and then the way we're gonna do this episode is Yeah, I did some homework. I Went through some of my photo row some of the moments
 
 I'm going to ask you, you must have your favorite moments of the year when it comes to China global EV-AV mobility. I do. We can do this chronologically because we can go back to CES in January of 2025 all the way to the current, to the present and kind of look back at some of the notable
 
 news, events, persons that we talk to, products that we experienced, I mean that we can do that.
 
 Tu Le (05:27.055)
 Am I going to cry? Am I going to get nostalgic Lei because I can't think of what happened two months ago, let alone the last year. Cause when you said all that, I thought about us being in Beijing, driving that NIO ET5 us meeting with Brian Gu at CES, us having that round table in Shanghai. Let me get on my soapbox for 30 seconds. There's no one in the world that's doing what we do. And
 
 Lei Xing (05:30.025)
 No, I don't know.
 
 Lei Xing (05:42.551)
 There's one moment.
 
 Tu Le (05:57.297)
 That's why we appreciate everyone that's listening and viewing and coming back. We don't advertise this show. We should because there are lot of posers out there that think they know or tell you that they travel, but they don't. We don't see them in China. You and I have been in China this year. I was in China six weeks and you were longer. um, so I appreciate.
 
 all the listeners and followers that continue to be with us.
 
 Lei Xing (06:29.932)
 Well, I mean, I'll take it a step further. We don't know everything. We're still learning ourselves. and because it's a complicated world, literally and figuratively in the, you know, not only in the space, in the space, but politically, geopolitically and economically, it's complex. And I think we, since 2023, that we've been able to go back.
 
 I've been able to go back and every time I think going back is we treasure our time there and we try to experience. And one thing you mentioned was again, right, for the second consecutive year, we've driven a EV across the country. This time a NIO ET5 from Beijing to Shanghai, we swapped our way from Beijing to Shanghai without charging. That was one of the notable experiences of this year. And you mentioned talking to Brian Gu
 
 at CES almost a year ago. And the moment I remember is, you might remember as well, that had a consequence is after our interview, the person waiting next to talk to Brian is by the name of Kurt Bachmeier. He's the VP sales of MagnaSteyr And guess what? 10 months later, they announced a deal
 
 for XPeng to produce at the Austria facility. And the other Chinese automaker is GAC Group. They're already producing in Europe. And that's in a matter of 10 months, but the discussions, I'm sure, went on for longer than that. So I think that's one of the moments I think I'll remember because, okay, we...
 
 We knew something was going to happen. It's just  a matter of when And then CES, I'll remember, Zeekr was a packed house. When they had the press conference at CES, we were there. They had a group.
 
 Tu Le (08:43.569)
 Toyota had a big room, but they didn't announce anything. Akio Toyoda got on stage, didn't really announce anything. I remember that.
 
 Lei Xing (08:52.654)
 We went to the NVIDIA Jensen, Huang's keynote. ZOOX was still testing in Vegas, but now they're commercially operating.
 
 Tu Le (09:04.559)
 What a difference a year makes in the autonomous vehicle space, huh?
 
 Lei Xing (09:06.188)
 Right? yeah, if I had to choose, I mentioned some of the keywords I will remember. think definitely 2025 shaped up to be, I would say in anticipation of a Robo taxi, bigger Robo taxi year in 2026 because we heard so much about Robo taxi. What happened?
 
 Now only in terms of collaboration, right? Nuro + Lucid, Uber, Baidu, WeRide, Pony, they are expanding further out of China and working with some of these mobility providers outside of China. Baidu just announced Uber in London. So I think it was a year of expansion.
 
 Tu Le (10:04.421)
 That might be the coolest city outside of San Francisco Lei because London also has Wayve So it's a 3-headed monster Wayve Baidu and Waymo.
 
 Lei Xing (10:06.051)
 Go.
 
 Lei Xing (10:12.29)
 Yeah, Waymo's very
 
 And then someone I think CES earlier this year, it was a lot of China factor actually. I Li Auto Mega was there. It was displayed with the part of the Dolby Vision Atmos. Great Wall Motors were there. The Great Wall Motor booth, I remember the hottest product on display or the people most interested was not any of their cars, it was that motorcycle.
 
 You remember. Because Americans love, right?
 
 Tu Le (10:50.46)
 Yeah. Yep. Oh, and by the way, for those going to CES, rumor has it, there's going to be an ET9, a NIO ET9 at the Dolby booth.
 
 Lei Xing (11:02.44)
 well, I mean, not that surprising to see piggybacking other brands to have Chinese vehicles on display. So I think CES was fun because this is your first time. It was my eighth time. But I think despite the wall, both 100 % EV tariffs and the ICV ban,
 
 they're still coming at least branding wise showing the tech yeah
 
 Tu Le (11:39.003)
 They need to come. We want that competition here. Because our friend Patrick George, who is the editor in chief of Inside EVs he also writes for the Atlantic. He just posted on LinkedIn an article that said the passenger vehicle pricing backlash has begun. In the United States, a passenger vehicle
 
 now averages over $50,000. And so how do we get lower price? We bring more competitors in.
 
 Lei Xing (12:18.049)
 The average loan in the US I think it's like $750 a month
 
 Tu Le (12:23.473)
 And the crazy thing is, when you and I were living in China, before we lived in China, the longest loan on average was like 60 months. So now it's 72 months and people are trying to compare apples and oranges. Oh, my car payment is $400 a month or $500 a month or $600 a month. And then you...
 
 Lei Xing (12:37.464)
 I just
 
 Tu Le (12:50.353)
 peel layers of the onion back or ask them in more detail. It's like, oh yeah, it's a 72 and it's like, dude, you're not paying the same amount. Your monthly payment is the same, but you're not paying the same amount. So.
 
 Lei Xing (13:01.836)
 just saw a headline saying 100 month loans. This is on Wall Street Journal. Anyways, I'm paying 550 a month for a 48 month loan, almost toward the end, six months to go. So I'm almost done, but that kind of gives you... And in China, also speaking of loans, I think one of the key words was this past year,
 
 Tu Le (13:06.833)
 my god.
 
 Tu Le (13:25.552)
 No-
 
 Lei Xing (13:32.012)
 the relating to the price war and the number of brands offering zero interest financing, zero down, zero interest financing. I mean, almost everyone is doing it because that's part of the competitive environment. Tough, right?
 
 Tu Le (13:49.411)
 And then we went to Munich, right? Let's summarize. yeah, OK. Let's talk about Shanghai. Well, we're jumping around a little bit. So let's just go with some of the numbers because I normally don't take notes, but I took some notes because it is the year end. And one of the biggest themes this year was exports, exports specifically into Russia, into Europe.
 
 Lei Xing (13:54.638)
 Well, we gotta talk about Shanghai first.
 
 Tu Le (14:18.671)
 into Latin America, Mexico specifically. And those are the three areas that have gotten a lot of Chinese exports, not only clean energy exports, but ICE exports. The UK also with SAIC being a strong player due to its MG connection. And so one of the big things, Chery BYD, Geely big exporters, okay, when we look at the numbers,
 
 You hear about NIO, XPeng and BYD entering these foreign markets, but it's really BYD driving the volume. They're going to be at 4.6, 4.7 million units this year. About 20 % of those are exported, and they're already in over 100 markets. Any emerging markets that they enter, Israel, Thailand, within months, they're the number one clean energy brand. And so it really creates a lot of...
 
 let's say alarm for the legacy automakers and the theme one one hint I'll say Lei really quickly before I hand it back to you is that one of the themes that we might be talking about in 2026 is how the price war might be exported into these markets. So I'll let you take over but
 
 Lei Xing (15:14.39)
 Yeah.
 
 One more?
 
 Lei Xing (15:31.918)
 Well, yeah, there's a few topics here. You mentioned price war last. think price war 2025, I would say the price war seems to be waning a bit. Not to say that it's not going on, but compared to 2023 and 2024, we saw the industry and government bodies
 
 Tu Le (15:50.449)
 Maybe we're just numb.
 
 Lei Xing (15:59.872)
 launched several initiatives. There's the 60-day payment term requirement. There's the joint kind of the industry call for orderly competition. There's the rules on the use of jargons on ADAS because of several controversial accidents. There's a couple of accidents involving the Li Auto and Xiaomi.
 
 So that kind of gives you an idea of people are thinking before they... Because one of the things that happened, I remember at the end of May is when BYD launched that latest price cut.
 
 Then the industry came out, people followed and the industry came out with that call for orderly competition. And then speaking of one of the moments that I remember you mentioned BYD is us in Munich watching the press conference and Stella Li she showed a PowerPoint with 32 countries, 1000 dealers.
 
 And we joked, by the way, that's not 32 countries in the world. That's 32 countries in Europe. And 1,000 dealers in Europe. We made a point, right? And then she already mentioned that they're going to expand that 1,000 dealership point to 2,000 by the end of next year. That's in Europe alone. Yeah, so that was quite memorable. And then for me, speaking of BYD again,
 
 Tu Le (17:28.369)
 Ohhhh...
 
 Lei Xing (17:48.268)
 They've had their share of good and the bad and the controversial because they're facing some headwinds. for me personally, witnessing BYD getting that World Urban Car of the Year at the New York Auto Show, that was one of the historical moments, right? I think that was the first time that a Chinese brand vehicle has gotten that award. And then Stella Li getting that World Car Person of the Year award.
 
 and kind of having a conversation with her and she's petite but the aura around her, I mean, we saw the press conference, it's huge, I think, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
 
 Tu Le (18:30.289)
 She commanded that stage. was the biggest stage at IAA and she was up there owning it.
 
 Lei Xing (18:37.304)
 But then again, right, we talked about the price cuts and BYD needing to adhere to the 60-day payment terms, then they starting to see that affect their books of profitability. Because BYD is notorious with these payment terms in the industry. And they had their BYD dealian, which is their own kind of the, what do call it, the financial?
 
 financial chain of how they pay their suppliers and away. So yeah, so it's good and the bad, right? And we have to, you know, be fair and yeah, they're running away, they're exporting, but they face their own issues just like everyone else.
 
 So.
 
 Tu Le (19:27.803)
 So let me, and we have a lot to talk about, so I want to move Ford, but.
 
 Lei Xing (19:33.228)
 We're not, the other way, we're not going to be exhaustive. It's impossible. We can talk this for a day, whole day.
 
 Tu Le (19:40.433)
 For our newer listeners and viewers, you gotta go watch the Brian Gu video because a lot of what he said in January of 2025 now is going to be dots connected and it make a lot of sense because XPeng is ascending while BYD is descending a little bit and Geely is also ascending. Geely also just brought Zeekr private. So I think there's gonna be a little more flexibility
 
 Lei Xing (20:09.774)
 That was a big pinch.
 
 Tu Le (20:10.373)
 for Zeekr in the future as well. And then the other thing that I think that I have a lot of pride in is that round table that we did at the Shanghai Auto Show with Ed White, the Financial Times journalist, correspondent, Jill Shen. She left TechNode, but she was the technology and autos writer, and then Ethan Robertson, who is a wheels boy.
 
 Lei Xing (20:22.286)
 host.
 
 Tu Le (20:36.271)
 So for those of you that was a two-parter because we talked for almost two hours. And again, thank you for NIO House or for NIO for allowing us to record it at the NIO House in Shanghai right next to the largest Starbucks reserve in the world. So.
 
 Lei Xing (20:53.234)
 And right across from the Durant Guild, which went poof. Yeah, well, it's no longer, it was a good try from GM, but yeah.
 
 Tu Le (20:57.167)
 Yes, that closed.
 
 Tu Le (21:06.737)
 So really quickly, NEV export leaders, BYD with year over year currently about 45 % increase. SAIC with an increase of the 10 % to 20 % Geely Group plus 30 % Chery at 250. Now the important thing about Chery Lei, is they went IPO in Hong Kong this year.
 
 Lei Xing (21:33.678)
 I'm not, yep.
 
 Tu Le (21:36.433)
 The big thing is about 25 % of their exports goes to Russia. And during the IPO, they announced that they were going to exit that market. So first of all, there's gonna be a vacuum that is going to be filled by other Chinese brands, first and foremost. And then second, it'll be an important year for Chery to show where it can make up that 25 % of sales.
 
 They're firing on all cylinders. have Omoda have what are some of the other brands they have, Lei. So.
 
 Lei Xing (22:12.82)
 Exeed just tweeted Exeed launched several new nameplates, ET8, ET9, ES8, ES7GT. I'm like, yeah, that's not on purpose, right?
 
 Tu Le (22:25.389)
 Yeah, if the Chinese brands aren't confusing enough and so.
 
 Lei Xing (22:27.692)
 Yeah. Well, they had the iCar, Exeed, else? Chery, Omoda, Jaecoo on international markets.
 
 Tu Le (22:35.779)
 I forget, Omoda, Chery anyways.
 
 So a shout out to our friend, Nick Carey. He had written a piece earlier this year on Reuters that talked about how within two months, Chery built a Euro spec Omoda from a Chinese spec because the European team said, this is not going to sell. The steering's not great, not for the European market. And so.
 
 Maybe we can also give our finally, cause they're still lingering. It's not as much, but maybe rest in peace. This thought that these vehicles aren't competitive. These vehicles aren't very good. These vehicles are great. I would buy one if, if I could in the U S market, I know you would Lei because you know, when a Xiaomi can come in, build two cars.
 
 in three and a half, almost four years. And this year, you had mentioned this in an earlier episode, hit almost 400, 450,000 units. That's an amazing number. again, piggybacking off of something you said, Lei, the ABB Audi Bimmer Benz, they haven't touched a million units. Within four years, Xiaomi with two products, BMW has a dozen products. Audi has dozens of products.
 
 So they're doing this with two products, the YU7 which Marques Brownlee famously reviewed just a couple of weeks ago. And I don't know how much that pricing would be. It could come here for 60 grand and it would sell.
 
 Lei Xing (24:26.914)
 Yeah, some of the numbers, since you mentioned, XPeng, produce their million vehicle. Leap Motor, produce their million vehicle. Xiaomi, they produce their half a million vehicle, cumulatively. And these three companies have the potential to produce and sell either a million or close to a million next year.
 
 I think that's kind of mind boggling because Xiaomi is only less than five years old in terms of their EV business. And Leap Motor already announced they plan to sell a million units in 2026. And then speaking of other numbers, I think the three numbers that will kind of...
 
 There's three 30 million in 2025 that happened. One in the first 11 months, China Auto Productions output and sales already surpassed 31 million units. Obviously close to six hundred million units are going to be exported, but Chang'an just produced their 30 million vehicle in their history. F.A.W. Volkswagen produced their 30 million vehicle.
 
 I think that just gives you an of the sheer scale and size of the market, of the industry. And there's probably about over 40 million NEVs on the roads in China. More than 10 % of all vehicles on roads.
 
 Right? It's quite difficult to comprehend, but the conclusion is China is an NEV market. It's no longer, I mean, right? We heard about CPCA announcing that 60 % of passenger vehicle sales retail will be NEVs in the month of December. The chasm, right? We've gone way past that.
 
 Lei Xing (26:42.07)
 If 10 % was a turning point, then 50 % is another huge turning point. And China is kind of way ahead.
 
 Yeah, those were some of the numbers that I thought of.
 
 Tu Le (26:58.712)
 And kind of a microcosm just because a lot of the numbers that you had spoken about are in the mass market. So there's an article, believe, our friend Jiri from CarNews China had posted about the Stelato how that luxury sedan is now taking sales from the S500, from the 7 Series. Yeah, the Maextro sorry.
 
 Lei Xing (27:19.662)
 Oh, the Maextro Bloomberg, I just tweeted a Bloomberg tweet that they're the top selling vehicle of $100,000 or more.
 
 Tu Le (27:33.905)
 So there you go. And this reinforces what I've said all year long, brands, the heritage brands, they are kind of meaningless, the history of the heritage, because in China, the consumers are all about what have you done for me lately, and the Maextro You know, I'm not a fan of the exterior design, but it is
 
 Pretty luxurious. And man, that has to be a head scratcher for Merc and Audi and Bimmer. And if we had to rank them, would say BMW is probably in the best position to rebound. Merc and Audi are going to continue to struggle, I think. But what do you think?
 
 Lei Xing (28:31.618)
 Well, we've seen the first attempt. Let's not talk about the upper kind of the top segment, but really, Audi, the AUDI brand launched the E5 Sportback in the 200,000 RMB range. The Mercedes locally produced CLA is priced in the 200,000 range. Right? It's unthinkable.
 
 First of all, the price range. Second of all, launching a new brand. Third of all, it's all Chinese tech inside. It's Huawei inside. It's Momenta inside. They've gone kind of deep into this rabbit hole in order to compete. And the initial, I don't know if you've seen the numbers, the initial numbers, the first couple of months or a month, the numbers are not that great. So...
 
 Because the competition of others are launching. mean, look at, we should talk about NIO in a bit, but just the last few weeks and a month or so, the NIO, the Onvo is actually facing some headwinds, partially due to the scrap that you mentioned, the scrap incentives. Also due to the other, like I could think of a Geely Galaxy M9, for example, launching a more competitive pricing.
 
 points. So it's kind of difficult that you don't what is the secret success formula? You don't have one. I mean, you put the Chinese tech inside. Does it help? That's the hope.
 
 Tu Le (30:18.021)
 The other thing that is really important to kind of remember is that mostly European brands, but there are some American brands, GM with Momenta in the China market, Toyota, Mercedes also with Momenta in the China market. These European brands and Japanese brands, Korean brands, they have all announced partnerships with Chinese technology companies.
 
 And I think it has surprised some people, some analysts, and they don't have anything capable. One of the things that I remember, and I'm jumping around a little bit, so my apologies, is going to the NIO Media event at the Shanghai Auto Show, and then Li Bin pulling out two chips out of his pocket and said, we are going to be using the Turing chips to power our ET9.
 
 One for the infotainment, one for the autonomous or intelligent driving. we're going to, NVIDIA and Qualcomm and AMD and Mobileye, they're going to have to do a lot of work if they're going to try to protect any of this market share, this dominant market share, specifically NVIDIA and Qualcomm that they have in the intelligent driving and infotainment systems.
 
 for these cars because I won't say that NIO and XPeng with its Shenji are that close yet, but it's only a matter of time. And I guarantee you that these chips, the silicon is going to be much cheaper than what Nvidia charges the OEM.
 
 Lei Xing (32:09.071)
 Yeah, we can't talk about China EVs more without talking about Wei Xiaoli, which is NIO, XPeng and Li Auto because they're kind of the OGs and they're also the three public listed companies in the US, smart EV startups. They are as same as they're different. Because I think for 2025, we look back, it's the year where Li Auto was in the lead at the beginning.
 
 And now at the end of the year, Li Auto is fighting. And NIO and XPeng they seem to be getting on the right track, right? The ES8 they've already delivered 40,000 units, I think, I get the number right, was 30 or 40. And it felt like they're both 10 years old.
 
 seen this after 10 years, it's kind of a little bit of redemption for NIO, I think, right? Because they launched the model that was their first kind of, that brought them to the scene, the ES8. And now it's flying off the lots, right? I think 19 days, they sold another 10,000 units.
 
 Tu Le (33:21.829)
 Well, it's important to also note that the Onvo brand is helping with their volume, so.
 
 Lei Xing (33:22.979)
 Yeah.
 
 Lei Xing (33:27.341)
 Yeah, mean, one of the moments was attending the Onvo launch on July 31st and the moment that the price dropped 265,800 full price and then the next moment was when it was 170-some thousand renminbi for a large three-row six-seater battery electric SUV. That was the moment when the Bin god was cemented.
 
 Tu Le (33:55.589)
 Hehehehehe
 
 Lei Xing (33:56.591)
 People are calling him Bin Shen, Not Bin Ge, Bin Ge is brother Bin, right? And yeah, so I think, I'll tell you my favorite moment of the year is celebrating my birthday post-NIO day in Hangzhou.
 
 Tu Le (34:18.356)
 Hmm.
 
 Lei Xing (34:20.877)
 That was, yeah. And then really seeing NIO still iffy whether they can get to that profitability, I don't know. I think it's gonna be tough,
 
 Tu Le (34:38.043)
 That battery swapping is such a unique thing because if you think about...
 
 Battery swapping in the rest of the world. It's a, it's a really, really heavy lift case in point ample. The San Francisco based battery swapping startup has filed for bankruptcy. So, and with, so I went to the BYD event in Beijing right after the Shanghai Li Auto show.
 
 where they demonstrated the as fast as gas, 1000 kilowatt, uh, speed and
 
 Lei Xing (35:25.795)
 Yeah, yeah, that was a megawatt flash charging.
 
 Tu Le (35:32.047)
 And that's nothing short of amazing. I also got to try out God's Eye for about 20 minutes. And to me, if we're talking about moving the entire global sector Ford, God's Eye as standard on 20 of its 22 vehicles when it was announced is an ultimate game changer for me in my opinion.
 
 Lei Xing (36:00.803)
 Yeah, yeah, I remember this was in March when BYD announced two things. One is the ADAS for all, which is the gods eye ABC, right? And then the megawatt flash charging thousand volt and then five minutes get you 400 kilometers range back. And I kind of joked that BYD means‰∏çÁî®Á≠â.
 
 Tu Le (36:28.587)
 hahahahah
 
 Lei Xing (36:30.201)
 Don't have to wait. B-O-D, which means cheaper than gas. The acronym BYD. We make some fun on that.
 
 Tu Le (36:36.379)
 Yeah.
 
 Lei Xing (36:45.859)
 Yeah, that was back in March. And then it was the Shanghai Auto Show. Shanghai Auto Show obviously, again, it's the Shanghai Auto Show is where I think after two years, right? The 2023 Shanghai Auto Show is when these foreign automakers kind of the reckoning moment and Volkswagen, they put up three words at their group night. was, let me check.
 
 Tu Le (36:46.381)
 Ugh.
 
 Lei Xing (37:16.867)
 It was discuss decide, deliver.
 
 And next here is really the year for delivery for Volkswagen Group. They're set up. And then the...
 
 Tu Le (37:29.391)
 Well, they're going to start with the ID Unix, which is off of the XPeng platform.
 
 Lei Xing (37:32.783)
 Yep. then Audi, Audi, both Audi and the four ring Audi, I think they put up some vehicles with Huawei inside.
 
 I think it's A5L that has Huawei system inside.
 
 Tu Le (37:53.755)
 The other thing too is these legacy automakers,
 
 They put meaning behind in China for China.
 
 Lei Xing (38:03.147)
 And the Shanghai Auto Show is also when this year, remember, it wasn't like Beijing where all these CEOs were checking out each other's booth and talking and it was pandemonium. Lei Jun wasn't at Shanghai Auto Show because of that accident. He tried to remain a bit low key. So the Shanghai Auto Show, think for a long time, felt really like an international Li Auto show without the...
 
 brouhaha of these CEOs walking the booths and causing these. I remember last the year before Beijing Auto Show, the whole hall where Xiaomi was at was jam-packed. But I personally, what I did was in that line to get a hat from Xiaomi. I waited for about 30 minutes to get a hat.
 
 Tu Le (38:42.513)
 Yes.
 
 Tu Le (38:58.978)
 Ugh.
 
 Lei Xing (39:01.039)
 It just shows you, speaking of Xiaomi, that the fan base, I think their fan base has really helped them. Aside from, yeah, mean, Marques Brownlee he reviewed this YU7 tech-wise, the vehicle-wise, right? He gave it a plus. But the fan base is something that I think just holds Xiaomi. mean, whatever controversies, whatever accidents.
 
 They're going to sell 400,000 units.
 
 Tu Le (39:35.985)
 All right, yeah, and since next year, the Li Auto show is in Beijing, plan to...
 
 Tu Le (39:46.363)
 you know, do a few things that I think will be fun. It's crazy, right? Right around the corner. anyways, what, what, let me see here. The other thing that I wrote down here is GM and SAIC, GM had a $5 billion write down on its joint venture with SAIC, SGM. And so.
 
 Lei Xing (39:48.628)
 It's right around the corner.
 
 Lei Xing (40:12.729)
 Bye.
 
 Tu Le (40:17.977)
 complimentary to that because it's an American automaker Ford launches an electric in a, EREV Bronco and, GM alongside it launches an MPV, the GL eight in two versions, a business version and a family version, completely different, at least interior exterior with the features. And unfortunately.
 
 They are not coming to the US market. think our friend, wheels boy, Ethan Robertson got to check out both Broncos. And so I'll, I'll be keen to speak with him and we'll, you know, we'll speak with him and figure out what he thinks of the Bronco for China.
 
 I actually posted in my newsletter because I thought it was important that Westerners know that, you know, Ford is moving Ford with clean energy outside of the United States as they announced two or three weeks ago, a 19 and a half billion dollar write down of EV assets and failed contracts. So while
 
 Lei Xing (41:10.82)
 Yeah, I
 
 Tu Le (41:37.433)
 China is setting the pace. The legacy automakers are doing everything they can to get to the starting line in order to compete. Now, they're not competitive. You and I agree on that. What GM is doing, what Ford is doing, what Volkswagen is doing is not going to actually get them ahead. It's going to get them to the starting line where they hope the Chinese still are. But you and I know that even if
 
 The Chinese government is keeping a close eye on pricing and involution. The China market is still going to be pushing itself Ford and setting the global pace.
 
 Lei Xing (42:20.131)
 The Buick, Ford, Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes, their vehicles, their branding in the Chinese market, I call it the Chineseification of these brands because the Buick, the Electra sub-brand, the Ford Bronco PHD and the BEV, these you cannot get outside of China. Yet they're American brands.
 
 and they're Chinese-ified. I hate that word but same as every other foreign automakers and you don't have to be locally producing I think I've mentioned this you don't have to be locally producing to be localized. Renault they're developing they have a China R &D arm for their products outside of China.
 
 Lei Xing (43:16.271)
 Porsche just opened the only R &D facility outside of Germany. And they will institute some of locally developed functionalities into imported Porsches. Most likely the Cayenne EV.
 
 And they're not producing, they're probably never going to produce because they're going to sell less than 50,000 units this year in China.
 
 Tu Le (43:51.057)
 They're going to have to perhaps shut down capacity in Europe because they've lost so much sales.
 
 Lei Xing (44:02.123)
 Volkswagen disclosing the glass manufacturer in Dresden is the epitome of what's happening.
 
 Lei Xing (44:16.559)
 Yeah. And we talk, go back to profitability. think, yeah, there's, there's, think a lot of headlines does say the Chinese are competing at losses, right? But also on the, on the foreign automaker, their financial status aren't as great. mean, we, we saw the numbers from Porsche, right? From 18 to 20 % return on sales to low single digits.
 
 1-2 percent. That's difficult to comprehend for for Russia.
 
 Volkswagen Group, right? Yeah, and then just today, ZF sold their ADAS business to Harman.
 
 Tu Le (45:08.369)
 Yeah, I saw that.
 
 Lei Xing (45:08.896)
 It was.
 
 Lei Xing (45:13.529)
 I mean, we think about ZF, A Tier 1 traditional German Tier 1. They're in an 8S place and they sold it to Harman. Harman is what? Infotainment? Cockpit, right?
 
 Tu Le (45:24.249)
 Yeah, well, originally they're known for speakers and sound.
 
 Lei Xing (45:29.091)
 Yeah, so yeah, nothing surprising anymore what you have to do to kind of survive and yeah.
 
 Tu Le (45:41.797)
 The one thing that, so, you know, I was on Auto Line last week kind of talking about competitiveness and innovation. I think traditional automotive folks, analysts, journalists, they need to get their head around the fact that tier ones are now technology companies in,
 
 Some of the technology companies, the NVIDIAs, the AMDs, the Amazons, they dwarf the OEMs from valuation from a money in the bank standpoint. So the OEMs won't be able to push them around like they did traditional tier ones. Just remember this, guys. NVIDIA supplies. So five years ago, six years ago, if you're a buyer at General Motors,
 
 If you're talking to Nvidia, it's for server chips and silicate, right? You know, six, seven years ago now. And so that's an indirect buy because it doesn't go onto the product, but now you need product buyers that understand silicon design, silicon fabrication and kind of roadmaps and how fast it goes every 10, every 12 months. You need product buyers, direct buyers to know that in.
 
 Ask your friends that work in automotive. Just ask them a simple question. Who is sourcing on your team? Who is sourcing silicon? Is it the indirect buyers or is it direct buyers? That'll tell you how important the OEMs think sourcing silicon is to the product or not important it is because it should be, because it's such a value on the bill of materials. It's such a high value component that needs
 
 a lot of attention. the other thing that's really important, if I'm buying a Thor chip from Nvidia, my product team better know how to get the most out of it. And we know that the Xiaomi's, the Li Autos, the XPengs the NIO's, we know they know how to get the most out of it because they're technology first. They're not automotive first.
 
 Tu Le (48:08.421)
 But the car companies are really trying to get their heads around what features can we pack so that we're optimizing for this Thor chip in our hardware software stack. Again, we're talking philosophical, Lei, but this is a fundamental difference between the Chinese companies and the Western companies that the Western companies are just trying to figure out at this point in time.
 
 Lei Xing (48:36.323)
 Yeah, and also you mentioned earlier, WeiXiaoLi WeiXiaoLi, all three of them are doing their own SOCs. Rivian just announced, right? But comparing to Leap Motor, Leap Motor is profitable. Leap Auto swung to a loss last quarter, but Leap Motor is profitable, but they're going to get to a million next year. They depend on Qualcomm for both of their cockpit and ADAS. The kind of the single chip solution.
 
 This is kind of a contrast. What I'm trying to say is that you could buy or do it in the house. What justifies it? I think at this point, it's not clear yet because you do need the volume to justify it. And even a Leap Motor who's getting to a million units, they're not doing their own chips or SOCs. So you figure.
 
 Tu Le (49:06.531)
 And does this mean that
 
 Tu Le (49:34.693)
 Well, the other thing too late is that. When we think leap motor, we should think Citroen. We should think Pujo. We should think Dodge because.
 
 Lei Xing (49:34.831)
 It's a business.
 
 Lei Xing (49:44.355)
 With. Yeah.
 
 Tu Le (49:47.793)
 If I'm Filosa, I'm quietly looking at my components across all of these small car platforms and comparing them to Leap Motors Bill of Materials for their small cars. Because what I really want to do is if there's a great supplier supplying a high margin or a high cost driving
 
 Lei Xing (49:49.955)
 No.
 
 Tu Le (50:17.425)
 component on the bill of materials, I want to leverage that across all of my vehicles around the world. Stellantis is one of the few that can truly do that because they have French brands, have Italian brands, have, I want to say, do they have German brands anyways, but you know what I'm talking about. Yeah. So this is where Stellantis really has a leg up on the competitors.
 
 Lei Xing (50:36.141)
 Okay.
 
 Tu Le (50:46.159)
 You know, Volkswagen, they're just completely different because they were going to, they're going to rely so heavily on Rivian for the U S market and so heavily on XPeng for the China market. No, they'll argue that they bring a lot to the table, but really do they? I don't know. I'm, I'm really, really scratching my head a little bit and I'll have a much, much more thorough opinion.
 
 probably mid 26 when I get a better idea of what they're licensing from Rivian and what they're licensing from XPeng. So.
 
 Lei Xing (51:23.215)
 So interestingly enough, mentioned Stellantis. Recently, a couple of Jeep executives visited DPCA, which is a Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen joint venture. Shenlong in Chinese is called Shenlong. So there's a possibility of Jeep returning production in China through that joint venture. And Jeep has failed twice in China.
 
 Tu Le (51:52.389)
 Well, they succeeded and then failed because for a while Jeep was doing really, well. And then Great Wall caught up and then everybody kind of caught up.
 
 Lei Xing (51:52.911)
 I'll figure. Yeah.
 
 Yeah.
 
 Lei Xing (52:02.649)
 But I mean, from an international expansion perspective, Leap Motor definitely has lesser upfront investment because they can utilize the Stellantis dealership footprint through that sales joint venture. And then Li Auto, they're starting to expand into the mid-Asia.
 
 Tu Le (52:20.955)
 Right.
 
 Lei Xing (52:29.559)
 other parts of the world, right? In 2026, they'll go into more markets.
 
 Xiaomi 2027, they've already said 2027 they're launching in Europe and other regions. So look out.
 
 Lei Xing (52:49.517)
 Yeah.
 
 So we're at 52 minutes, roughly we've talked about 50 minutes. Now 50 minutes went by like China's speed.
 
 Tu Le (53:01.199)
 Yes, it did. I actually you got me thinking, Lei. Are there any other sub topics that you wanted to talk about?
 
 Lei Xing (53:08.227)
 No, think the other thing that I think would also define 2025 is when we talk about the China EV-AV mobility, we now have to add one more component. It's the embodied AI or robotics. Because everybody is talking about it these days. Whether it's Li Auto, Li Auto launched its smart glasses. XPeng has a humanoid robot. Tesla.
 
 Others may be in the works, we don't know. And then there's these millions and millions of Chinese robotic companies. And then we have to throw in the kind of the Meituan, the Neolix, because they are part of the ecosystem. And we can't talk about this ecosystem without the LIDAR companies. LIDAR companies, speaking of bankruptcy, Luminar has filed for bankruptcy.
 
 As Hesai and Robosense they're starting to deliver on the scale of millions and millions of LiDARs per year.
 
 Couple of years ago, it was just talk of the entire lidar industry passing the million unit mark. And now each of these two players, they're going to deliver over a million lidars. This is both for the ADAS and the RoboTaxis and the Neolixes. And the opportunity is something that's presented more recently, these level three permits that Chang'an and BAIC
 
 have recently gotten because level three autonomy will use multiple lidars, which are in the hundreds of dollars cost-wise these days. So I think that lidar volumes is gonna balloon despite we have two kind of tracks, the Tesla and the XPeng Vision only kind of the approach versus the rest, which
 
 Lei Xing (55:15.427)
 believe Rivian is also one, which believe the LiDAR to be a critical safety component and commoditized democratized component.
 
 Tu Le (55:27.899)
 They highlighted it in AI Day.
 
 Lei Xing (55:29.891)
 Yeah, and I kind of tweeted, we both, we, it's RoboSense most likely, but right there, they're getting into international markets, even on private vehicles that you can buy.
 
 Tu Le (55:51.557)
 Well, the other thing that's really important, you talked about embodied AI in the United States. think they call it physical AI. So a lot of these humanoids, a lot of these non-automotive robots that are either cleaning streets, cleaning malls, lawn mowing, there's a lot of application that needs LIDAR in the robotic and autonomous space. We are just talking about robotaxes, but
 
 Think of defense, think of all of these applications where somebody is driving or controlling that. LIDAR now is going to be a part of the eyes for any, whether it's a Roomba, right? Like, you know, there's all types of applications for these kinds of things, industrial and then, you know, commercial and private. But, so they're going to be lower margin, but.
 
 Lei Xing (56:35.853)
 Well, I.
 
 Tu Le (56:50.191)
 the volumes are going to be driven by all of these other applications because the automotive side is so, so regulated. it's going to be one of the things that is still unclear is what the policy and regulatory environment is going to be for Chinese technology on Western roads. We know in the United States it's been restricted.
 
 But if the Trump administration doesn't enforce it, now what happens? then the EU, I think they probably are going to have a much more robust policy towards Chinese technology in 2026. So we'll have to wait and see.
 
 Lei Xing (57:36.192)
 I it's fluid. we've heard that even though I think actually in Mexico might be the number one export destination at this point past Russia, but both Russia and Mexico are either already or considering putting more restrictions or higher tariffs on China vehicles, Chinese vehicles import into the country. Right. So those are, we're watching us. You can't really, it's a wall. It's blocked.
 
 UK was announcing this pay per mile thing for EVs. But it's a different, I mean, region.
 
 Tu Le (58:19.835)
 All the while the United States with shows like Landman are trying to pull out the tail for oil consumption or oil usage. So, yeah, you know, and then I bumped into Bob Lee who's the head of LG North America a couple of weeks ago. You know, one of the things that he emphasized was that LG and SK had mentioned it as well with Ford.
 
 that they're pivoting towards battery energy storage. And Ford during their analyst call when they announced the $19.5 billion right down, they said that they're moving from NMC...
 
 Lei Xing (59:03.575)
 LFP
 
 Tu Le (59:05.339)
 pouch to LFP prismatic. I might have gotten that swap, but I think that's right. And so people wonder if LFP is here to stay, if there's going to be an emerging battery chemistry or technology that's going to usurp it. And I don't see that happening for the foreseeable future. So.
 
 Lei Xing (59:22.753)
 Army.
 
 Lei Xing (59:28.303)
 The foreign automakers, Volkswagen will have to depend on Gotion for example, and then Ford on CATL. We were at the CATL press event ahead of the Shanghai Auto Show. Remember how many types of tech and products they announced at that event? There's the second generation, right? Yeah.
 
 Tu Le (59:48.529)
 They kind of emphasized the three major business lines that they had, right?
 
 Lei Xing (59:54.52)
 Yeah, so the sodium ion, the second generation Shen Xing super fast charging batteries, the LFP for heavy duty trucks, the multi chemistry kind of the battery pack 12C charging. Right. And then then I got to visit their the CAIT, which has theirs, CIIC, which is the CATL intelligent
 
 something chassis. forget. So CATL is more than a battery supplier. Case in point JD, GAC Aion and CATL they jointly announced that battery swappable Ion Super. Ion Super. It caused some kind of controversy because they didn't
 
 some of the things that they promised for the consumers. But I think 2025 is also the year of battery swapping starting to go mainstream. Not only NIO, But CATL has already, they have these stations, close to a thousand already. But then at this year, for some of the lower segments,
 
 not the premium segments. Firefly actually, I think, had a great year despite the controversial design that was announced last year.
 
 Tu Le (01:01:38.449)
 Let me see here.
 
 Lei Xing (01:01:38.475)
 And NIO is closing in on 100 million swaps. Probably they'll get there in January.
 
 Tu Le (01:01:52.749)
 One thing that I think is also really important is kind of separate. And we'll wrap up here and get to questions. So for anyone who's watching that has any questions, I know there's been a couple of posted already, so we'll get to those in one second, everyone.
 
 Lei Xing (01:01:53.263)
 was.
 
 Tu Le (01:02:11.695)
 Let's separate Chery, BYD, Geely a little bit and Great Wall from a lot of the other players because they've announced or already started building factories outside of China. So they have a distinct advantage in case export backlash gets more serious across the rest of the world. You know that
 
 Mexico has increased their tariff or announced that they're increasing their tariff. Brazil has increased their tariff. The United States is still at 100%. So these important markets for the Chinese, are creating protectionism. The EU is a little bit different, but, and it's typically schizophrenic where Spain wants more foreign direct investment because CATLs and all these companies are
 
 making it an electric vehicle and battery hub for Europe. then while the labor unions in France and in Germany really don't want more exports. So.
 
 Lei Xing (01:03:27.833)
 What?
 
 Tu Le (01:03:28.033)
 We will get into this deeper in our looking ahead to 2026 episode in about two, two and a half weeks, but Lei
 
 Lei Xing (01:03:39.92)
 Yeah, you know, just picking on your last comment is that while China moves further ahead, think we saw EU is currently discussing walking back from the 2035 ban on ICEVs. US, the EPA, right, it's they've kind of walked back on the previous targets.
 
 So these I think may present opportunity, further opportunities for who can provide the products on the EV side because the foreign automakers are walking back on their home turf. So.
 
 That's what we're seeing, despite the tariffs, right? the blockade, it hasn't stopped. I mean, because you're offering the products, the price point at the feature is that the consumers are willing to buy.
 
 Tu Le (01:04:39.46)
 It has not.
 
 Tu Le (01:04:48.081)
 And we're reaching an inflection point. But in the next five, seven years, there's going to be more Chinese companies that are building outside of China.
 
 Lei Xing (01:04:57.667)
 I'm
 
 I think also just maybe a close-up of it. 2025 is also the last year of the 14th five-year plan, which in China, every five years, there's these economic and direction-wise of what the country wants to achieve. We heard about the 15th five-year. So 2026 is starting the 15th five-year plan. And obviously, know, Kaimen Hong, auspicious start. People want auspicious start.
 
 and we talked about the scrap subsidies possibly coming back in 2026 because there's also the economic pressure of domestic consumption that we all know is it's not like what it's before.
 
 Tu Le (01:05:52.507)
 The real estate market in China is weighing heavily on the economy. That's one of the factors.
 
 Lei Xing (01:05:56.72)
 I I'm a personal example. I sold mine last December a year ago. And since then, how much have the housing prices come down? I don't know, 20%, 25%. Yeah, I mean, it's, yeah.
 
 Tu Le (01:06:09.755)
 I guess you're lucky, huh? You know, that you got out when you did.
 
 Tu Le (01:06:18.801)
 So Lei, I posed this question to the audience, but I'll let you answer it first, and then I'll read some of the comments. What car, and this is kind of unfair, because I think if we go to China, we could just ask them, and they'll let us borrow it. But currently, what car would you try out for a week if you could?
 
 car with Chinese brand.
 
 Lei Xing (01:06:50.223)
 Oh, that's crazy. I don't know, maybe get the... We've done XPengs we've done NIOs I don't know. Well, yeah, I mean, that's over the top. Maybe... I don't know, something like the Leap Motor D19 or something.
 
 Tu Le (01:07:02.905)
 Maextro, baby Maextro
 
 Lei Xing (01:07:16.824)
 You
 
 Or one of the Huawei. Actually, one of the Huawei brands is definitely on the bucket list.
 
 Tu Le (01:07:19.962)
 I'm gonna
 
 Tu Le (01:07:24.625)
 Yes, I think I wouldn't mind trying out the Yang Wang. See, see how we'll see what that's all about. That should be the sports car. I would just get into an accident. I had, I don't need to be getting into an accident in China. So
 
 Lei Xing (01:07:30.997)
 Which one? The SUV or the sports car?
 
 Lei Xing (01:07:37.836)
 Well, the other thing I think that I remember happened this year was iShowspeed, the top streamer. He went to China in March. I think people all over the world kind of saw through his lens what China was about. And he was actually one of the young ones.
 
 Tu Le (01:07:57.169)
 So that's the thing, that triggered, Lei, these Chinese brands to reach out to all these KOLs that are on TikTok in the US. Yeah, so they are infiltrating the US market whether the US government wants to or not.
 
 Lei Xing (01:08:08.047)
 Yeah, Marques Brownlee, right? I he revealed the new 7, so.
 
 Tu Le (01:08:21.905)
 trying to enter the minds of young people. which I think is a brilliant, brilliant idea. And it tells you the level of confidence that they have to let Marques try it out. now I don't, did he get paid? I don't know. He should, he should definitely acknowledge if he's gotten paid or not, but you know, outside of that,
 
 letting them have the keys for a couple days and trying it out themselves. think that's brilliant. Let me go to some of the comments here. Urban guitar legend. Well, definitely nothing here in the US is decent except Tesla. And I'm not touching that because of Elon. But the NIO Onvo L90 was definitely a surprise after the dismal sales of the L60. So.
 
 Sounds like Urban Guitar Legend wants to try out an L90. The Mace. I might be in the minority on this, but one brand I had high hopes for when they came to North America a couple years ago was VinFast. Their collapse in the US this year was sad, but also predictable. Urban Guitar Legend Xiaomi has managed to move past two major accidents relatively unscathed sales-wise. The decline of Li, Li Auto, think, rather
 
 has been rather dramatic within a few quarters. Oh, our friend Felix, Leap Motor I'd say, they have a 28,000 euro family Bev in the Netherlands. Hold on a second here. just, this is so bad. I can't, it keeps on moving down.
 
 Lei Xing (01:10:10.253)
 Yeah, as a putting a consumer ahead, I also tweeted this, right? I'm ready to switch to EV and Tesla will still be at the top of the consideration list. I can't put anybody else in equal footing with Tesla just because I think they're most established in terms of EVs. And if I do get it, I probably will try FSD. It looks like it's interesting that we didn't talk about it's because of the
 
 Tu Le (01:10:35.185)
 Ugh.
 
 Lei Xing (01:10:38.669)
 Robo taxi, supposedly they're now testing the robot taxis without the safety drivers in Austin. Where does that go compared to the Waymo? They're going to be in 20 cities in 2026. They just crossed the 20 million trip mark. I think it's definitely interesting to see here in the US that part of the race.
 
 Tu Le (01:11:05.305)
 Waymo is way ahead of everyone in the world. So that competition is just going to heat up in 2026. Urban Guitar Legend says, NIO will be profitable even if it's not in Q4. It will happen soon. It may seem crazy, but battery swap can be many power plants with solar and game changer for third world countries.
 
 I spent six months in Madagascar last year. Battery swap could help stabilize grid. Let me see. So Mace thinks the EREV Bronco is pretty intriguing. And the ZF, the ZF, Harmon announcement came from left field. Here's a question from our friend Felix who greeted us from Amsterdam. Do you expect Xiaomi to do a Tesla?
 
 and build their own dealerships, aka service bots.
 
 Lei Xing (01:12:11.799)
 I'm not sure I understand the question, so...
 
 Tu Le (01:12:17.457)
 So let me see, do you expect Xiaomi to do a Tesla and build their own? So Tesla has independent or Tesla owned service centers. Is that what Felix is asking? Cause remember in Beijing, they had that huge, huge one that they launched several years ago now.
 
 Lei Xing (01:12:31.747)
 Yeah, that's that's
 
 Tu Le (01:12:43.057)
 So I think Xiaomi will partner. It's a pretty heavy lift and Tesla is a trolley, $1.5 trillion company. So I don't know if Xiaomi has that level of capital that they would go alone. know, the brand is recognizable, but not like it is in
 
 in China where it is ubiquitous. That's my
 
 Lei Xing (01:13:15.245)
 Yeah, currently my understanding is Xiaomi's services, they're not that greatly widespread. I think they still have to drive all the way to Yizhuang or something to their main servicing center. My understanding, I could be wrong because all of their showrooms are purely showrooms. They don't have this 4S capability.
 
 yet.
 
 Tu Le (01:13:40.463)
 And they moved out of high rent malls into like second level malls in these cities where the retail store is actually not super impressive like it was in the past. Felix also asked, do you expect December 2026 actual sales possibly for Xiaomi cars in Europe, Q1 deliveries?
 
 Lei Xing (01:14:06.258)
 Tu Le (01:14:06.481)
 Can Xiaomi outrun Tesla in China in 2026? Wow, Felix bringing the heat. What do you think?
 
 Lei Xing (01:14:13.519)
 2026, they've done 400,000 units this year. So I think there's a very good chance that it does. And not only Xiaomi, there's others, right, I mentioned, that are looking at possibly close to a million. Tesla has never done a million in China. I think the most they've done was $600. Oh yeah, so I mean, if we do that,
 
 Tu Le (01:14:36.945)
 Tesla's only hit 650, 630, something like that.
 
 Lei Xing (01:14:43.383)
 If we do the math, yeah, they're going to top Tesla next year. I mean, we can make that prediction now.
 
 Tu Le (01:14:52.239)
 Yeah, I think that's realistic.
 
 Lei Xing (01:14:53.155)
 But it's if everything is, if nothing hiccups or right, which I don't see at this point.
 
 Tu Le (01:15:02.741)
 And I can't imagine a product that Tesla launches in 26 in the China market that would be this runaway hit. I don't. You know, there's too much competition.
 
 Lei Xing (01:15:15.779)
 Well, the model YL seems to have done pretty well from their model Y lineup, interesting enough.
 
 That's hence the resilience. think I mentioned the resilience, maybe a keyword that after all this time, right? I think Tesla is still doing okay, but I mean, they're losing share definitely, but we're gonna either number, it's Q4 numbers globally. Currently it's only in the 400,000, low 400,000 range.
 
 Tu Le (01:15:43.8)
 And well...
 
 Tu Le (01:15:55.611)
 and the the the the other thing
 
 Lei Xing (01:15:57.164)
 Last year they did close to half a million. They're not going to do that much here in Q4 this year. Definitely not.
 
 Tu Le (01:16:04.827)
 The other thing that I think is important is...
 
 Tu Le (01:16:13.201)
 2026 is probably, in my opinion, might be a down year for vehicle sales in China because the price war is going to be leveling off. so the weaker players are going to find it harder to export. And maybe we'll start to see some of the players go away. so.
 
 Urban Guitar Legend asks, need travel advice guys, want to hit the NIO Factory, how difficult is it for foreigners to test drive cars? Do other... sh...
 
 Lei Xing (01:16:48.429)
 NIO NIO F2, I think you can sign up for visits But you can pay for visit. I think this is like, I don't know a couple thousand and B If I remember correctly, but you have to be in a group. I don't know if you can do it alone You might But they're opening that
 
 Tu Le (01:17:07.525)
 Well, if you were doing it alone, they'd put you in a group probably.
 
 Lei Xing (01:17:11.149)
 Yeah, well, I mean, if you go to China, just go to any dealership, just go to any showroom, just ask for a test ride. That's what I do. You might need a, I don't know how.
 
 Tu Le (01:17:20.933)
 Does our driver's license work? Urban Guitar Legend, I'm assuming you are American because Lei and I are Americans, but I have a Chinese driver's license. has a Chinese driver's license.
 
 Lei Xing (01:17:31.375)
 I think it's pretty easy to get a driver's license in China these days.
 
 Tu Le (01:17:36.048)
 International.
 
 Tu Le (01:17:41.441)
 So really quickly, I know you do it already, Lei, but I'm looking at doing a China tour in June. So I'm completely focused on electric vehicles. So for those interested, you can DM me to learn more about it. Hold on a second here.
 
 Lei Xing (01:18:04.035)
 Yeah, mean, it's one way to kind of, I think last year, when I remember is a couple of these trips is how young and international and professional these companies, most of them are startups. There's always the BYDs and the NIOs but the ambitions, the ambitiousness you can feel, can through speaking to these companies and their employees.
 
 I mean, yeah, it's very rewarding to kind of interact with them. Yeah.
 
 Tu Le (01:18:46.095)
 Yeah, so I didn't want to do it. We're not a tour company, but I've gotten enough interest from clients, partners, that it would be like friends, you know?
 
 Lei Xing (01:19:00.045)
 Yeah, it's a perfect way to see and experience.
 
 Tu Le (01:19:09.393)
 So anyways, YanMXV, what do you think we see regarding L3 in China in 26?
 
 Lei Xing (01:19:17.727)
 I think it's going to be a huge year because we've seen these first of all these license it's called the ÂáÜÂÖ•ËÆ∏ÂèØ which literally means entry permit
 
 On a national level, that means you get these official license plates with the Z at the end. Z means autonomous driving. these vehicles are only going to be operating in those limited environments that the customers can experience but cannot buy at this point in time. It's to accumulate more operational piloting experience.
 
 Tu Le (01:19:40.891)
 Yeah,
 
 Lei Xing (01:19:59.632)
 in the future anticipating that the L3 is officially allowed for you to buy. So if I buy let's say a Deepal or ArcFox that I can use this L3 capability in certain section of roads. We're not there yet but you're going to see more permits being announced in 2026 possibly going into 2027 that
 
 you can actually buy these and have your eyes off or something.
 
 So basically in China, it's L2++. Everybody has to do it. XPeng talked about launching three models in 2026 of the L4 Robo. And then in between, we now have these L3. Yeah. And in China, the difference is Ëá™Âä®È©æÈ©∂ versus ËæÖÂä©È©æÈ©∂. In the English sense, it's automated driving.
 
 Tu Le (01:20:49.691)
 Basically different sizes, different sizes.
 
 Lei Xing (01:21:01.869)
 which is the assisted driving versus autonomous driving, which is Ëá™Âä®È©æÈ©∂. That makes a huge difference because of I think the OEMs now, they have to be responsible in certain scenarios. So it's starting to happen, but...
 
 Tu Le (01:21:24.241)
 That's the interesting thing though, Lei. They want to push the envelope and be able to say they're first, not only individual companies, but the country of China. But I think it's going to be very limited to begin with. I think it's going to be very slow moving, like in traffic jams and things like that in the city. I don't think you're going to be able to do it on highways right away.
 
 Lei Xing (01:21:46.02)
 They, yeah, they're only, for example, the depot is only allowed single lane. You cannot change lane under 50 kilometers per hour on the expressway in traffic conditions. That's the ODD at this point. Yeah.
 
 Tu Le (01:22:04.017)
 And again, you're not going to be able to do it because there'll be a limiter and it's not like FSD in the United States where you just turn it on.
 
 Lei Xing (01:22:13.807)
 FSD is still all 2++ at this point.
 
 Tu Le (01:22:16.227)
 Right. And I think FSD going to L3 in China is going to be extremely challenging and expensive.
 
 Lei Xing (01:22:23.669)
 That's an area to watch also, know, where does Tesla go in terms of FSD in China?
 
 Tu Le (01:22:29.604)
 And does that?
 
 Lei Xing (01:22:30.829)
 Because FSD to the Chinese smart EV startups, XPeng He Xiaopeng, tweeted this. He put up a moment saying FSD is still the gold standard.
 
 Tu Le (01:22:34.33)
 If
 
 Lei Xing (01:22:47.181)
 Right.
 
 Tu Le (01:22:48.793)
 He's saying that, it's he's saying I I'm reading in between the line saying the non Chinese version of FSD is the gold standard, not the Chinese version. And, so it's almost, almost a backhanded compliment because in China, XPeng has the full, full, level two plus plus.
 
 Lei Xing (01:23:01.251)
 Yeah.
 
 Tu Le (01:23:18.933)
 And you and I have tried it. was almost a year ago now or two years ago now, but I was pretty impressed with the G9 when we drove it. The software is much better now, but the Mace asks, are you guys planning to attend CES? Yes, we are. I will be there starting on the third and I'll be there for a few days. I think you're also going to arrive in the third Lei. So.
 
 Lei Xing (01:23:44.783)
 CES is where you see China.
 
 Tu Le (01:23:48.761)
 Yeah, if you want to get a hold of us, yeah, feel free to get in touch. SSJJ005, he's a pretty loyal viewer. So thanks for continuing to be a part of the show. What's with all the new models by Chery naming them E-27, E-29, E-S8, et cetera? Can you use existing name in China?
 
 Lei Xing (01:23:53.293)
 Yeah.
 
 Lei Xing (01:24:03.695)
 Thank you.
 
 Lei Xing (01:24:14.287)
 I think that's the irony in China is to have these kind of naming conventions of these newer models. It's following an alphanumeric way more and more it seems. There's no current rule saying
 
 Tu Le (01:24:34.277)
 And that's copying and that's copying the legacy automakers, the Audi AA, you know, the E-Class, you know, stuff like that.
 
 Lei Xing (01:24:38.307)
 Yeah, there's no rule saying that the NIO has an ET5 that you cannot have an exceed ET5. But in Europe, NIO had to change their model names because Audi had the S convention. So it's an ELA or EL7 because of that. But in China, that's just the way it is.
 
 Tu Le (01:24:59.249)
 Yeah.
 
 Lei Xing (01:25:08.143)
 Call it copycat or call it whatever. It's just more fun. It's more confusing. It's more fun. Let them do it. What the heck?
 
 Tu Le (01:25:12.177)
 You know, they did that for the legacy automakers and now they're doing it with each other.
 
 Tu Le (01:25:22.617)
 No, but don't get me wrong, Lei, you know that NIO's like, what the hell, dude? So you know NIO's like that. do you, so Borg95, do you expect total China NEV retail sales to continue to grow at 20 % in 26?
 
 Lei Xing (01:25:28.111)
 I'm like what the hell?
 
 Lei Xing (01:25:41.764)
 Well, that's the thing you mentioned that we may see a kind of a down year. Well, it depends on what happens to the export, right? Seven millions over two million of that are NEVs exported. Depending on how the domestic incentive for consumption for next year, what kind of incentives are announced, I think that could be a huge factor.
 
 in terms of market going up or down.
 
 Tu Le (01:26:15.961)
 Remember that we are at around 50 % take rate. you know, we've, I feel we've reached that, the inflection point and it's going to start to level off a little bit because the market is 25, 26 million units. So half of those, it's basically the EU. There's NEVs like 12, 13 million, NEVs in the China market to get to 15, 16, 17.
 
 Lei Xing (01:26:16.313)
 But.
 
 Tu Le (01:26:43.217)
 over 60, 70 % market share is going to be pretty challenging just because the lower tier cities are probably more comfortable with like eREVs than they are BEVs. So, but we'll see. I think we'll have a good idea of March, April, whether or not there will be incentives administered by the Chinese government due to the weakness.
 
 You know, we can say January and February are kind of a wash just because it's the beginning of a new year and Chinese New Year. Then you get to March and April. And I think you'll start to see whether or not there is like foundational or systemic weakness in the passenger vehicle market. And that's when the Chinese government will likely assess whether or not they need to put their thumb on the scale.
 
 Lei Xing (01:27:36.495)
 I think it's also natural that when you have a high base, the growth in some percentage slows down a bit. You're not going to double 15 million, right? You can double 2 million, 3 million, 4 million. You're not going to double 15 million, right?
 
 Tu Le (01:27:44.081)
 Okay.
 
 Yeah.
 
 Tu Le (01:27:52.571)
 So Felix says, BYD says 300,000 vehicles out of Hungary at some point. They say Q2 will start mass production of surf. Do they reach 50K surfs in Q3, Q4 combined?
 
 Lei Xing (01:28:10.359)
 Very well.
 
 Lei Xing (01:28:15.117)
 possible.
 
 Tu Le (01:28:15.857)
 300 Felix 300k sounds like a lot to be honest with you Yeah, so I Think that's pretty optimistic just because if you think about it Felix the Legacy automakers and 26 will have more products that are competitive hopefully competitive, know, the MEB plus will start launching vehicles XPeng is gonna have
 
 Lei Xing (01:28:21.027)
 Well, for the first year, yeah.
 
 Tu Le (01:28:46.001)
 a better idea of their strategy and kind of penetration into the international markets leap motor as well. You had mentioned as a really strong player at 28,000 euros. So again, talking about exporting the price war, we could see that in Europe in 26, but that's something we'll talk about more in about two and a half weeks. So, RAN.
 
 The Ren Ren the sino. So Zeekr, he'd like to try Zeekr. So luckily I gotten to try the. 9X and the X9 the MPV is the 9X. Or the X9.
 
 Lei Xing (01:29:31.631)
 Yeah, well, the SUV is a 9X and the MPV is a 009.
 
 Tu Le (01:29:37.137)
 009, yeah, so I got to try the 007 and the 009. See, I'm getting confused with these product names. So anyways, urban guitar legend, tale of two cities, but definitely the NIO ET9 and on the other end of the spectrum, the NIO Firefly. You got to at least give us the top three to try, LOL.
 
 Tu Le (01:30:05.689)
 Okay, I can do that. Top three. Yeah. Just one ain't going to do. So what are your, what are your top three? If you said, which cars did you say Lei well, it, so, so urban guitar legend, if you haven't driven a Xiaomi, you got to do a SU7 or a YU7 That's one. I think Lei and I agree with that. And if you haven't driven a BYD, try a,
 
 try a Han or Tang, the newest version. I think you'll be pretty impressed with those. They're about $35,000, $40,000 in the China market. And I don't want to speak for Lei, so Lei, if you have different...
 
 Lei Xing (01:30:47.151)
 I'm gonna throw out some curveball, try one of these Audi E5 Sportback or Mercedes CLA and compare and see where they've caught up or where the difference is. mean, that's what I would wanna do next time I go back, right? Cause I haven't had a chance.
 
 Tu Le (01:30:56.613)
 Maybe the Ford Bronco. Maybe the Ford Bronco.
 
 Tu Le (01:31:06.935)
 I'm definitely going to try out the Bronco.
 
 So I said Xiaomi, I said BYD, and Lei said, let's try a foreign legacy in the local market.
 
 Lei Xing (01:31:18.937)
 Buick Electra L7, yeah, right?
 
 Tu Le (01:31:23.194)
 Yes.
 
 So Felix says BYD is partnering with existing dealerships. me see here. Worth noting that Tesla, yeah, that's good. A little bit of marketing and some nurturing. We'll be better in 26, I think. You and I need to make more investments in marketing this way. so.
 
 Lei Xing (01:31:33.231)
 Wow, we got a lot of comments. 50 clicks,
 
 Lei Xing (01:31:50.415)
 Yes.
 
 Tu Le (01:31:52.021)
 Board 95, worth noting that Tesla, RoboTaxis didn't have an issue during the recent San Francisco blackout, whereas Waymo vehicles did. Yeah, that's important.
 
 Lei Xing (01:32:01.548)
 And that's a big highlight of, you know.
 
 Tu Le (01:32:04.902)
 But I look at that as more or less growing pains that Waymo will remedy pretty quickly. I don't look at that as any showstopper for them.
 
 here. I'll do this. I'll do this. And then urban legend.
 
 Lei Xing (01:32:23.715)
 Thanks Felix.
 
 Tu Le (01:32:27.599)
 Looks like that's it. Lei in, we did it in about an hour and a half. So kudos to us, pat on ourselves on the back.
 
 Lei Xing (01:32:33.455)
 Alright, yeah, I mean just we just riff, right? Yeah, yeah, I mean, hopefully it was an orderly riff, not a riff riff.
 
 Tu Le (01:32:38.255)
 Yeah, well, yeah, I normally don't have any notes and I only peeked at my notes for a second.
 
 Tu Le (01:32:47.353)
 No, it was, it was kind of messy, think. But everyone loved the engagement. Hopefully we and you will be more engaged in 2026. Happy holidays to everyone around the world. have downloads in over a hundred countries. So we know we are a very, very global audience. So thanks again for joining us, being a part of our community, being part, being our friends.
 
 Lei Xing (01:32:53.615)
 Yeah
 
 Tu Le (01:33:17.417)
 And Lei I will talk to you on DMs but brother it's a couple days till Christmas. So happy holidays. Hopefully you've been good. So Santa can come give you some great gifts and Yeah, yeah, yeah well, maybe maybe Another gift maybe a little bit later could be an EV for you, right? So
 
 Lei Xing (01:33:28.365)
 Well, I've already got this big gift here, so I can't complain.
 
 Lei Xing (01:33:40.188)
 Well, that's, that's, yeah, that's, yeah.
 
 Tu Le (01:33:43.707)
 So everyone, and I'm just going to create a marketing document. We're pretty set on 9 AM Eastern time on Fridays. So if there's a ton of heartburn for that time and date, Lei and I have some flexibility. But our priority is engagement. So if that's a bad time for a lot of you, you let us know. Just message us too at ChinaEvies and more. Lei at ChinaEvies and
 
 Lei Xing (01:33:55.788)
 Yes.
 
 Tu Le (01:34:13.425)
 And we'll try to accommodate where we can get the most engagement. So hold on one second. Urban Guitar Legend. Fun fact, I wrote into BYD and Madagascar. Gas car. So that gas car must have been five, six years old at least. It is interesting that BYD and Chery have a presence there. Gas cars though, great show. Thanks guys. So everyone, happy holidays and we will see you in
 
 Lei Xing (01:34:26.543)
 of all places.
 
 Tu Le (01:34:42.877)
 2026 with our first episode and maybe some of you will even see you at CES in Las Vegas. Everyone, good morning, good afternoon, good evening to a great year in 2025.
 
 Lei Xing (01:34:44.023)
 Yes.
 
 Lei Xing (01:34:54.959)
 Thank you for all the support. Happy holidays from my side and we'll check out and see you next year.