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China EVs & More
The EV Power Shift Is Here: China Expands While the West Struggles | CEM #243
Use Left/Right to seek, Home/End to jump to start or end. Hold shift to jump forward or backward.
In Episode 243, Tu Le and Lei Xing break down a defining shift in the global EV industry: China’s EV growth is now being driven by exports as much as domestic demand. 
March sales rebounded strongly, but the real story is export share. Companies like BYD, Geely, Chery, and Great Wall are now exporting 30% to over 60% of their vehicles, signaling both global expansion and rising competition at home.
Tu and Lei explore what this means for Tesla, legacy automakers, and global markets, as Chinese EV companies scale faster and push into new regions.
Key discussions include:
• Why rising exports may reflect pressure inside China’s domestic market
• The flood of new models ahead of the Beijing Auto Show
• Tesla’s positioning amid growing global competition
• Canada’s EV policy shift and implications for North America
• Why value — not brand — will ultimately decide winners
This episode highlights a turning point:
👉 The EV race is now global — and accelerating fast.
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🔑 SEO Keywords
China EV exports 2026, BYD global expansion, Geely EV exports, Chery international sales, Tesla China competition, EV global market trends, Chinese EV growth, EV industry transformation, Beijing Auto Show 2026, electric vehicles China vs US, EV price war China, Tu Le Sino Auto Insights, Lei Xing China Auto Review
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⏱️ Chapter Timestamps
00:00 🔥 Hook: Americans want value, not origin
00:12 Intro and episode setup
02:00 March EV sales rebound
04:30 Export share surge explained
08:00 BYD, Geely, Chery global trends
12:00 Domestic pressure vs global expansion
16:00 Beijing Auto Show preview
20:00 Tesla positioning and outlook
24:00 Canada policy and North America impact
28:00 Global EV strategy discussion
32:00 Q&A and wrap-up
Tu Le (00:00)
Hi everyone and welcome to the China EVs and More podcast where my co-host Lei Xing and I will go over the week's most important and interesting news coming out of the global EV, AV and mobility sectors. What Lei and I discuss today is based on our opinions and should not be taken as investment advice. For those that are new to the show, welcome. And to our loyal listeners and viewers, welcome back.
We ask that you help us please get the word out about this podcast to others. And of course, tune in to that next week. My name is Tu Le. and I'm the managing director at Sino Auto Insights, a global management consultancy that helps organizations bring innovative and tech focused products and services to the transportation and mobility sectors. I write a free weekly newsletter that we pull many of our discussion topics from.
You can sign up for it at sinoautoinsights.substack.com, which of course I encourage you all to do. A, on the road, Lei, can you please introduce yourself?
Lei Xing (00:55)
Yes, a in the city of brotherly love, and this is a long-awaited episode 243, number 243, coming back from our hiatus from last week. Brotherly love, speaking of love, we're getting some love back in the sales in March, which is the way it should be, and it should have been,
So nothing surprising there. I was just in New York for the NY Auto Show two days ago. We can talk about that. I think it's the China factor, the China, buzzword for the fifth straight year that I've been there, has never been more chatter on China at New York Auto Show.
It's the sign of the times, right? Sign of the times. And we can begin there. We can talk about the March sales. I actually, a bit late this month, just catching up on last night on some of the numbers, I think what's striking is export share remains significant among the big guys, at least.
And overall sales rebounded in a big way across the board, right, which is what we expected.
Tu Le (02:10)
Well,
I'm actually excited to hear about your week long or two week long experience with your new car. Let's do that first.
Lei Xing (02:18)
We can
talk about that later. Just speaking of brotherly love, right? I'm loving every moment of it. It exceeds my expectations. Let's put it that way.
Tu Le (02:22)
Okay.
Okay, right on.
Well, let's talk about the sales numbers then. We are getting to the end of first quarter. We know it's Chinese New Year, so we also know that subsidies were going away, so there's probably going to be a funk, BYD has acknowledged their struggles. Now, some of these companies are also, over the last couple of weeks, announced their...
Lei Xing (02:37)
Yeah, Go ahead.
Tu Le (02:54)
full year earnings for 2025 and sales. we can kind of combine that discussion a little bit, but what were your thoughts? What stood out?
Lei Xing (03:01)
Yeah, so I look at these numbers. BYD, they're back in the 300,000 range. Their export share is close to, it's more than 45 % year to date, year to date, so in the first quarter. Geely is right around 35 % in March. And Chery, this one stood out a lot. Almost two thirds of their sales reported in the first quarter were exported. Great Wall Motor.
close to 50%. I think it's both good and bad. It's natural that the share of export is rising, but at the same time that reflects the competitive pressure at home. And I just saw this number reported about the Mercedes CLA selling just a few dozen units in February or March.
Not officially reported, but it's low. It's quite low. Yeah, so both good and bad. But overall, I think things are picking up as we've seen in the recent days and weeks. Every other day, there's a new model launch. ‚Åì Yeah, I mean, you can sense that, right? mean, the fireworks are starting to take off.
Tu Le (04:07)
leading up to the Beijing Auto Show.
Lei Xing (04:15)
Three weeks we're exactly three weeks from this year's Beijing Auto Show.
and everybody's jostling and fighting for a piece of the market.
It's not going to get any easier.
Tu Le (04:24)
So.
We should remember a few notes on those sales numbers. We should remember that Chery IPO'd last year. Last year, I want to say over 50 % of their vehicles sold were exports. So to go to two-thirds isn't as big a leap because Chery was already exporting a ton, hundreds of thousands of vehicles. Yeah.
Lei Xing (04:46)
about roughly half that's been
there. Yeah.
Tu Le (04:48)
And so also remember that Chery had 25 % of their sales go to Russia. And when they IPO'd, they said that they were going to exit that market. So if we peel the layers of the onion back, we're going to find out which countries, I would think Mexico, because
Mexico has raised the tariff rate to 50 % in January. so there's going to be other markets that ‚Åì Chery is probably UK, Southeast Asia and Australia, Australia. What's that called? Australasia. Australia is going to get a lot of Chinese exports because I don't think they have.
Lei Xing (05:26)
Mm-hmm
Tu Le (05:36)
a tariff. They aren't subsidizing the purchase, but I don't think they have any massive protectionism either.
Lei Xing (05:44)
One of the friends from the show, Riz, he's from Australia. He keeps sending me these photos of these new Chinese EVs he's testing out in Australia. And also you've got the Model Y L that are being exported from Shanghai to some regions of the world. the last few weeks, the last couple of weeks that we missed the show, there's three...
Two or three models launched in that lower segment, the LeapMotor A10, the Chery QQ3. There was another one, I forget. I mean, the pricing of those vehicles, right? Leap Motor A10, sub-90,000 RMB with LiDAR.
That's epitome of involution, right, of this "juan" How do you go from there? And then you have just a few days ago, the...
The Huawei CATL Qualcomm on the new, there's too many models, I already forget. ABC, right? For batteries, for autonomous driving, for cockpit.
It's Qualcomm, CATL, and Huawei.
Tu Le (06:51)
the BZ7 launched and it's using Huawei, it's using Xiaomi, and it's using Momenta. So I tweeted about what does Toyota bring to the table outside of the brand, the logo on the vehicle, at least in China. Okay. So.
Lei Xing (06:52)
I mean, it's.
Tu Le (07:10)
This is a fine line because Sato also got up on stage or wrote an email to his employees that they need to get competitive because they're not going be around if they're not. So we're seeing more and more. I think Jim Farley has already done it. Sato has done it. Even Wang Chuang-Fu calls to action. The one concerning thing about the
Lei Xing (07:17)
Yeah, I saw that.
Tu Le (07:34)
the Cherys and some of these other companies, these Chinese companies is that they're losing out on domestic sales, which is concerning. Now, if they're growing both pies, that would be okay for me. if, BYD wants to get to 10 million because they want to overtake Toyota eventually. So they're at 4.6, 1.2 of that or almost 1.2 of that.
was exports. So they need to increase sales a little bit in China. I would love to see that they have six, seven, eight million units of sales eventually in the China market, because that means that they're strong domestically. If they can't compete domestically, then once more Chinese automakers go abroad and match them in other markets, then
I don't see how they would be better in an external market than they would be in the domestic market against the same competitors.
Lei Xing (08:31)
So BYD recently communicated that they were expecting at least 1.5 million exports this year, up from the 1.3 originally projected. So we think about if they can get back to 5 million, that's going to be hard. First of all, they did just over 700,000 total in Q1. And they need to do what? At least a million over the next...
three quarters each, right? But I mean, last year when I was in New York, when BYD won the World Urban Car, Stella was there and she already communicated then the long-term goal was the 50-50 % from domestic and overseas. And they've already gotten there. Chery is two thirds,
Remember the brand I was talking about is the Freelander coming back from a model. ‚Åì Yeah. The new brand from Chery JLR that they're putting these, ‚Åì the latest and the greatest on that model first. that's another part of the involution. Yeah. But I, I don't hold any hope for it.
Tu Le (09:21)
the JLR. Yeah, yeah, JLR.
like it.
I like it.
Lei Xing (09:38)
Just like I said, the AUDI probably, if the E7X doesn't do well, that may be killed.
Tu Le (09:44)
Production version should be out by summertime, I want to say. And so I don't know. Was that a real or was that a digital picture that they? Yeah. No, but was it a real? Was it real or was it? OK.
Lei Xing (09:49)
Yep, later this year.
No, that was a concept. It's called the concept 90s. That was showing. Yeah, that was a real show. Two real
cars at the at the event, which previews kind of the first rugged SUV coming later this year.
I was talking about this golden formula to be successful. Every one of these foreign brands has at least one element of. Be it the Huawei, be it the Momenta, be it the Volkswagen has this new one launching with Xpeng's Turing chips and VLA.
LeapMotor right? More recently, there's been also chatter, I think you pointed out in the newsletter about potentially what's happening in Canada, a LeapMotor based model for Stellantis
Tu Le (10:42)
So let's unpack that for 30 seconds. Currently, Stellantis has a factory in Ontario, just outside of Toronto. They were originally supposed to put another product, I think a Jeep, in that factory. Because of the USMCA, there's a free trade agreement between Canada, Mexico, and the United States for passenger vehicles, more than just passenger vehicles. But that's why.
a lot of companies are building in Canada. Canada is a decent sized market, but then you can export to the United States without penalty. That's not the case anymore. To appease Trump, Stellantis pulled production of the Jeep back to the United States. That factory is idle currently. This is on the heels of Carney's
huge announcement in January that they were going to cut 100 % tariffs from the Chinese imports. So of course, Carney is trying to create innovation, bring more jobs. And so this would make sense that Stellantis is looking to fill that factory with. And this is where I'm not clear. Is it Stellantis-badged vehicles or is it LeapMotor-badged vehicles? Could it be both? I'm not sure, but.
It would be a clean energy vehicle factory. so the Canadian unions are already talking. Kits won't be enough. We need full production. But you look at Spain where LeapMotor is working with Stellantis. They originally shipped kits to Spain for LeapMotor products. I think the C10 or something like that. And then they're going to move to full production on October. So maybe they grandfathered that in like Canada.
One of the things that I noted in the newsletter was I'm sure that all the other automakers that build in North America are waiting to see how that final negotiation works out and whether or not the Trump administration has any severe response towards Canada inking a deal. Now, Carney, I'm sure is very, very sensitive to the fact that
Any major announcement with a Chinese automaker is going to be met with, let's say not very happy response from the United States, but Canada has to do what it has to do. It's in a really, really tough spot. does it make sense for some automakers, some Chinese automakers to build both in the United States and Canada? Yes, it does. But
I don't think they can build two factories at once, one in the US and one in Canada. So a lot of them are just going to have to make long-term decisions amongst all this uncertainty.
Lei Xing (13:22)
Canada is just a little bit more decisive, whereas Mexico is kind of tied up, right? Because they increased the tariffs rather than Canada, which reduced the tariffs. And all three parties still are working on the USMCA.
Tu Le (13:34)
And one of the sticking points has to be passenger vehicles.
Lei Xing (13:36)
And
from the New York Auto Show, there's some chatter there that they still want to at least the dealers, the OEMs, they want to get the USMCA done. They want it to be one that has worked before and for this part of the region, for it to somehow ‚Åì work again. But now it's just more complicated with China now in both, like,
NIO opened their first NIO House in the Americas. When are they going to open their first NIO House in America? Costa Rica, So it's not too far away. And there's a lot of Americans in Costa Rica. And then Canada, obviously the US will not allow the Chinese importing to
Tu Le (14:17)
Yeah.
Lei Xing (14:23)
Canada come into the US. I mean, you probably can get it in, I don't know.
Tu Le (14:28)
Well, you hit the nail on head. The USMCA was very clean, but the Trump administration blew it up anyways. Now we can debate, that's a separate debate about the whys, but now that the Chinese and the Canadians have officially welcomed the Chinese to enter Canada, now it's getting really complicated.
Lei Xing (14:39)
Good.
It's interesting since that Trump's comment after he visited Detroit, he said, well, let the Chinese come in, right? He hasn't officially commented anything on that point, like confirming that he's welcome the Chinese to come into the US and build. But NADA is not having any of that.
The Alliance for Automotive Innovation is not having any of that. I'm going to share that a little bit later on the New York Auto Show. It's very thought provoking.
Tu Le (15:14)
Well, NDA is wavering. They're official.
Their official stance as an organization, an advocacy group is they don't want them. But they're saying, we can't control our dealers. So they're wavering, basically.
Lei Xing (15:36)
Yeah.
Tu Le (15:37)
I
want NADA to modernize because last week Rivian won a lawsuit in the state of Washington to be able to sell direct to consumer in the state of Washington. Does that help them in the rest of the United States? Maybe, maybe not. if NADA
and the dealers were so focused on the customer experience, then why is the vehicle sales process one of the worst, always rated one of the worst sales processes by consumers? It doesn't make any sense to me, so.
Lei Xing (16:20)
I mean,
of the best things about buying a Tesla is that exactly that buying process. Everything through the app and then you go pick up the car. It's just, everything is quick. Getting a loan, getting your vehicle traded in, delivery took 30 minutes. Yeah. And then, so one experience I'll tell you is now that I'm a Tesla owner,
Tu Le (16:35)
No quibble, you understand what the prices are.
Lei Xing (16:43)
I look at all the gas cars with a, hmm, I don't want that. They look weird, no, that's being too much of a stan, but it's great. Especially average gas prices are about $4 in the US. I don't miss any of that.
Tu Le (16:58)
Hmm.
So I paid, ‚Åì so
I had a long trip last week. I did a long trip last week and there's poor planning on my part and a couple new wrinkles for my family. So wasn't really prepared and I didn't want my sons to miss the events that we had scheduled for them originally. So my youngest had a bass.
Lei Xing (17:04)
You did the road trip, right? Yeah. ‚Åì
Tu Le (17:27)
like a string bass camp in Madison, Wisconsin. It was just going to be a family trip because we had never been to Wisconsin. My nephew goes to Madison. so we were going to drive because it would probably be even before the Iran war. Airfare was a little expensive. then to have to bring a string bass, the only way to do that was to drive and.
And then my son is on a new team. It travels a bit further for lacrosse. And so I live on the east side of Michigan. He had a couple games on the west side of Michigan, which was in between my home and Madison. so, and I was in DC, by the way, early in the week last week.
did catch up with ‚Åì our friend Steve Levine who writes The Electric, so that was great seeing him. had some good chats. We had dinner at this place called Duke's right in DC. So a couple other friends. Grant Schwab from Detroit News, he also stopped by to say hi and had dinner with us. But anyways, so.
Lei Xing (18:24)
Hope he's still a nutty, nutty
Tu Le (18:41)
Flew from DC to Chicago Midway. And then my wife picked me up. We spent the night at a hotel near Midway. Woke up early, drove to Madison from Chicago about two hours, two and a half hours. And then dropped them off at the camp. My wife had an Airbnb in Madison. Drove my son all the way to St. Joe's, which is right on the water. So that's a...
Lei Xing (19:04)
she is.
Tu Le (19:08)
Five-hour drive a four-hour drive. I want to say and then spent the night in st. Joe's and then Woke up at 7 to take him another hour and a half to Grand Rapids where the lacrosse tournament was after two games got in the car drove back to Madison, which was a five or six hour drive and then Then stayed there Saturday night. I didn't want to miss the last concert
Lei Xing (19:31)
No.
Tu Le (19:36)
It was like the performance. So we only stopped one time. We couldn't find the Costco right on the highway. So we went to a regular gas station and it was 4.15 a gallon. And then Sunday morning we woke up leisurely and then drove home from Madison. you know, not too bad. I wasn't too tired. The seats were pretty comfortable, you know, in the Hyundai Santa Fe.
Lei Xing (19:52)
Cheers.
Tu Le (20:05)
So back was okay and everything, but it would be difficult if not impossible to do that in the Mach-E. I think your Tesla would be okay, but so.
Lei Xing (20:14)
Tesla will be fine. yeah.
So I picked it up a week ago today on Friday from Boston, Western Mass. Everything at FSD, we drove down to Philadelphia from Western Mass last night. Everything was on FSD with one stop in between at a supercharger in the rest area. I didn't have to touch the steering wheel.
I think once you experience it enough, you kind of understand why FSD is such a gold standard for all the Chinese automakers, the startups. They want to be the FSDs of China. So I have a great reference now going back to China and thinking back of our trips before, the first one with the Xpeng G9.
incredibly well it did on the highways. And now with VLA 2.0 claiming to be the closest to FSD, I think I probably have the best reference to say whether yes or no.
Tu Le (21:15)
Well, I think...
Lei Xing (21:16)
You know, but
obviously it's not apples to apples because the driving conditions in the US versus China are lot different. You put right, so you put a Tesla FSD in China and you put an Xpeng VLA in the US, which one does better? You kind of think that way a little bit. Yeah, right. No, but FSD is still waiting for approval in China.
Tu Le (21:24)
Well, next one is Geofence 2. I don't think...
I don't think you can. I don't think you can. I don't think.
Lei Xing (21:40)
And you look at their March numbers for Tesla, I think it was 80,000, including exports. Not bad at all, right?
But overall, I Tesla, we saw their Q1 numbers not great, but they're still right there.
Tu Le (21:55)
So
Tesla is going to have some tailwinds because of the Iran war, because of their aggressive pricing, and the Model Y is still a decent car. I mean, there's just no way that it's going to grow. Sales are going to grow for Tesla in 2026.
Lei Xing (22:05)
Yeah.
Yeah.
I helped
sales grow by one this quarter by referring my brother-in-law. So he just bought one. He bought an inventory model. So it's contagious.
Tu Le (22:26)
M-M-M-N-
Yeah, it's going to be tough. think that the Iran war, I see no off ramp for it for quite some time, which should help. And one of the cars that was really attractive to me from the New York Auto Show was the EV3, the Kia EV3.
Lei Xing (22:32)
But yeah.
You know what? We can talk a little bit
about that. It's actually one of the jarring things. So Larry Evans from Clean Technica, I don't know if you know him, so we spent some time walking the show and we actually checked out the Kia EV3, the new 2027 Chevy Bolt and the new generation of the Nissan Leaf. And we did what was, he called it a knock.
knocking test. So basically knocking the the seats and the panels with your fist. And I look at these these are $30,000 EVs and the fit and finish the trim the interior
I couldn't believe my eyes, like, how shoddy they were. Because in the back of my mind, I have the $30,000 equivalent EVs in China, and how plush, how smart, how the fit and finish are so much better.
I think we're little bit spoiled.
Tu Le (23:43)
Yeah, I don't know to tell you, man. I think we've been
kind of beating that horse for quite some time.
Lei Xing (23:49)
Yeah, yeah.
And then Subaru launched this Getaway, like full size electric SUV. Same. I mean, it's probably going to be more than $50,000, $60,000.
Tu Le (24:00)
It's ‚Åì it's gonna compete directly with the Bronco.
Lei Xing (24:01)
In the interior,
yeah, it's not what you think of the Chinese EVs. Yeah.
Tu Le (24:08)
And that's a petrol engine vehicle anyways, isn't it?
No, no, Subaru getaway. I'm referring to the Hyundai, the Boulder, the Hyundai Boulder.
Lei Xing (24:16)
Boulder,
yeah. Well, yeah, I mean, that's the first Body on Flame.
Tu Le (24:18)
That's the Bronco
competitor, right?
Lei Xing (24:21)
Yeah, the body on frame that they're launching a series new models for the US market.
Tu Le (24:27)
I think we've reached, I agree with whatever market research firm that says that we've kind of reached peak SUV truck. I think that the combination of Chinese vehicles, what many, many more people are starting to see rank and file Americans, Canadians and Mexicans.
Lei Xing (24:28)
Ruh.
Tu Le (24:49)
that they can get in China for $30,000 with regard, you know, compared to what they can get in Mexico, the United States and Canada for $30,000 is night and day. And I think that mindset of, I can get such value for $30,000 if I was in China, why can't I get that here? And
You know, at $75,000, $80,000, an F-150 or a Tahoe is just out of reach for most people, especially when it'll cost you $80 to $100 to fill it up.
Lei Xing (25:24)
Yeah, I I'm putting my consumer hat on. If you look at across the board at the number of offerings available in the US, as a consumer, the model Y that I got is just a great vehicle, great EV. I don't want to be a stan. I don't agree with everything that Elon Musk does. But as a consumer, as what my everyday needs are, whether it's cost, whether it's FSD, it's just
great vehicle to own and to use and the HMI, right, the software, the charging experience. My wife, she did a charging alone on her own the other day. It was very easy. You don't have to, there's no learning curve. Actually, the fit and finish are better than the Model Ys I've sat in before.
and it's a great vehicle every day to use.
Tu Le (26:19)
Did you get your charger yet
or installed?
Lei Xing (26:22)
Yeah, yeah,
yeah. And I've done I haven't I should put this on social. I charged at home for the first time yesterday before my trip. It goes at 7 kW which gets you about 30 miles per hour So I charged about three and a half hours, you know, got to 90 percent and hit the road. I still had to stop by once because it's automatically.
Tu Le (26:31)
How fast is it going?
Lei Xing (26:45)
‚Åì generated in the trip, right? It'll recommend a place to stop to charge. But no problem. I think it's like 30 cents per kilowatt hour charging at home. And this morning I just did a top off. It was like 24 cents at a close by supercharger, close by.
Tu Le (27:04)
I am supposed to be
getting my charger installed hopefully next week or in two weeks.
Lei Xing (27:09)
Nice, it makes it so much more convenient. And you know, I get 2000 miles of supercharging for free because of the trade-in. So everything supercharging right now is free for me. So for this road trip, I'm paying nothing basically.
Tu Le (27:19)
Hmm.
If I believe that
everyone was like you and very conscientious about when you're using FSD to still pay attention, then I would...
Lei Xing (27:33)
I posted
on Twitter about my honest thoughts. I called it powerful, but with limitations.
Tu Le (27:42)
So that's where if I knew everyone was as conscientious as you behind the wheel using FSD, then I wouldn't have any problems with Tesla allowing anyone to use it anywhere. But I know people aren't paying attention. know people are really, really over-relying.
Lei Xing (28:01)
When I,
this, this is, yeah.
Tu Le (28:03)
and trust
it too, too much.
Lei Xing (28:06)
You know, when you drive, when you get your driver's license, when you do the driving license test, when you make a turn, you make a turn and you got to go back like that, right? Or to your right, to your left. I still do that even with FSD on. It's just become a habit that I don't want. I want to be trusting the system, but I also want to make sure I'm still responsible.
And so I still do that, even if it makes it the automatic lane change, just to make sure that there's no one next to me that, you but it, yeah, it does. It does so much help in terms of fatigue on the road trips. It's yeah, that's the value. I think that's.
That's why I'm loving it. And we can talk a little bit more about the New York Auto Show because there's a few other points I wanted to put across. First of all, was a nice meeting Nick Twork, and they won again, right? The Lucid Gravity won the world luxury car of the year. Second time that they've won an award.
Tu Le (28:52)
Okay, so... ‚Åì
Lei Xing (29:14)
Firefly obviously now becoming in the second consecutive year, a Chinese brand has won the World Urban Car of the Year. And I say the sign of times, I think going forward in that category, I don't expect any other brand other than Chinese to win that category going forward. And then next year and the year after, expect other Chinese brand EVs to win in the other categories.
I think there's no stopping. And the jarring, the crazy thing is this award is given in the US where the EV take rate is falling. And all five categories are won by EVs.
It's just the most weird thing. ‚Åì
Tu Le (30:00)
I, yeah,
I am concerned as someone who lives in Michigan and who tracks the D2.5 pretty closely, as closely as I do the China market because the U.S. market is so personal to me.
I'm concerned. I'm very concerned. I'm actually relieved a little bit that you hear rumors that at least one or two of the US automakers are trying to partner, trying to set the terms of engagement for the Chinese entering the North America.
Specifically the US market. We've heard that Farley is spoken with the Trump administration You know what? That's just a realization that this is inevitable. I'd written this in the newsletter and you know, Got a little spicy Lei because I was like look If there's gonna be a joint venture between Ford and BYD I just made BYD the example because we know that Farley has spoken with them I was like
Executives with only Dearborn and or Dearborn plus Europe experience with no China experience. They're going to get rolled on any joint venture with BYD or any major Chinese company. You know, I just think that it is so important to understand who you're dealing with as a joint venture partner. And there's so much scar tissue that Ford still has from
their challenging relationship with Chang'an. Do you think that if you've never experienced the China market in any significant way, you could come in and manage a joint venture in the United States, let's say, in a positive way, productively? I think it'd be tough.
Lei Xing (31:59)
And then the other part about the NY Auto Show, I think that stood out to me was Hyundai and Kia are always there. They're always big at the LA Auto Show. But Hyundai, right, you talk about the Boulder. Hyundai is 40 years in the US already. And up until...
I think they've invested $20.5 billion up until this point over the last past 40 years. They're going to invest $26 billion in the next two years. And they want to produce 80 % of what they sell in the US, in the US. So I think this is, ‚Åì I mentioned, I put up a little video, I mentioned that this is great study, case study for the Chinese to get, think about like,
a Korean brand that doesn't feel like a Korean brand. I'm just thinking like this is the other side of the equation, right? Yeah, that...
Tu Le (32:44)
Jeffrey, I'm sorry man.
made me laugh. That's a good one, Jeffrey. Good one.
Lei Xing (32:55)
We think about the Chinese threat. think about we want to have this cocoon in the US. We're just keeping the Chinese out.
It's not going to be on the same, the other side of the coin. It's not going to be easy for Chinese to be like Hyundai now, especially with the stigmatization of China. So why don't we in the US, I mean, in the panel, there's a panel, panel with K.C. Crain, with Jose Munoz, the CEO of Honda Motor, with Mike Stanton, the president of NADA, with John Bozella president and CEO of the
Alliance for Automotive Innovation. So Jose, key word he said, well, we just have to compete with better products, services, we just have to compete. The other two are all about level playing field and they want consistency in policy.
Tu Le (33:39)
Sure.
Lei Xing (33:45)
Which I'm like, there's none of that. There's no level playing field in the US. There's no level playing field anywhere. What?
Tu Le (33:51)
Hold on, hold on, hold on. Let me stop for
a second. Bozella and Stanton, isn't that their freaking job? To advocate for that? That's their job in the United States to do that.
Lei Xing (34:01)
They might as well call themselves
the Alliance for Automotive Protection. They call themselves the Alliance for Automotive Innovation. Yeah.
Tu Le (34:09)
Well,
I mean, to me, that's neither here nor there. Like, level playing field? You mean like global level playing field? Like, you know, how does that work?
Lei Xing (34:16)
Yeah.
Tu Le (34:18)
They should just worry about the United States, number one. Number two, they should advocate for a level playing field and consistency in the United States. And or what terms and conditions. They haven't said anything about what would be the terms that they would need to allow the Chinese to come. Articulate that, right? And then we can have a discussion. Until then, these are talking points that are meaningless to me.
Lei Xing (34:36)
No.
Yeah. mean, the nada. ‚Åì
Tu Le (34:46)
If you
want, just be honest to the US consumer. We believe that the US automakers are going to get rolled if we allow them to enter the US. And we don't care if they hire Americans to build their cars. We don't care about anything. We don't care if we require that they use US technology for cars built and driven in North America.
You know, because that's the thing to me. That's the most frustrating thing. They're not articulating all these things that they would need to make them happy outside of what you had just said. Not allowing them into the market.
Lei Xing (35:14)
That's fine.
And there's, there's the consumer, there's the demand side of the equation that nobody talks about. Do the American consumers, I bet there's a lot of them that want affordable EVs and we're not there yet. And why don't we do something like, why don't you do something, maybe have a small kind of like what Canada is doing and test it. And you want competition, well, bring competition, right? You can't just be in a cocoon and be protected.
Tu Le (35:25)
So.
Here's the thing, Lay.
Good.
Here's the thing, Lei, and again, as someone who lives in Michigan and deals with this stuff on a weekly basis, you hit the nail on the head. Americans want affordable vehicles that offer value to them.
Lei Xing (35:59)
Yeah, hi.
Not cheap vehicles, affordable vehicle. There's a fine line.
Tu Le (36:12)
And they don't prefer Chinese vehicles. They want affordable. I don't think they care if it's American or Japanese or Korean. So what the current crop of OEMs is not doing is offering them this value proposition. That's why there would be demand
Lei Xing (36:19)
That's the thing. That's the thing. That's the thing.
Tu Le (36:35)
for the Chinese cars because they offer better value. And you know, I'll bring it back to that knock test that you did.
So we know what you can buy for $30,000. Is it going to be $30,000 in the United States? It will not be $30,000 in the United States unless they build it locally and several years go by. It's not on day one going to be a $30,000 car. It's just not. The pricing is not going to port over directly. And so a $30,000 car
Lei Xing (37:06)
Yeah.
Tu Le (37:09)
A Xiaomi, let's make a specific example. A Xiaomi Su7 is probably gonna be around $50,000, $55,000,
But it would crush anything at that price point currently in the US market, crush. But it wouldn't help really on the affordability thing. Now, these 10 and $12,000 vehicles in China, might be 20, 22, 23,000 in the United States. And I think the Xingyuan would still be a pretty good value.
for an American consumer. So.
Lei Xing (37:41)
Yeah. The
other thing that the two panelists talk about, right? So the inconsistency of policy that with Trump now, every other day, something new. He could just blurt it out, right? Whereas in China, you have this roadmap of what happens at this point in time and you follow that roadmap.
How do you, as automakers, as OEMs, when you don't have a clear roadmap or a policy, the billions of write-offs.
Tu Le (38:11)
I want to point to something else that, so we have these advocacy groups that really aren't saying anything, number one. Number two, you probably know him. He's a friend of mine, Keith Bradsher He's the bureau chief for New York Times in China. He spends his time between Beijing, Shanghai, and a few other places. He basically travels all the time when he's in China. He's their economics journalist.
Lei Xing (38:12)
it.
Tu Le (38:36)
Super, super knowledgeable. I guess he used to work in Detroit as the bureau chief in Detroit and Joe White, our friend, Joe White was like competing with him because Joe White was the bureau chief for Wall Street Journal. So they used to compete for headlines. But anyways, he was interviewed two weeks ago. And I'm reminded of this because we haven't spoken in two weeks, at least through this podcast.
about all the advanced manufacturing happening. And Jeff is going to clap at this because I'll use NIO F3 or F2 as an example. Super, super automated. And you can assume that many, even the GM factories, even the Mercedes factories are pretty automated. OK? So in and of itself,
We are going to struggle to compete because we need to have more modern factories. Our constraints in the Midwest is that it's very strong and heavy UAW, which is pretty much antithema to anything advanced manufacturing because it'll eliminate jobs, generally speaking. And labor rates aren't US high in China.
Yet these companies and these industries and these factories are very automated because it creates more efficiency, it creates more consistency, and that's why they can do the things they do. Advanced manufacturing allows them to be at China Speed So there's these foundational things that the United States needs to realize that
make us uncompetitive. Now, my father was a UAW worker, so I get the need for unions and in collective negotiations for benefits and salaries and hourly rates. I get that, but I'm not a politician, so I don't know the answer to that. But I'm ready and willing to have these tough conversations just to lay everything on the table to make
sure that everyone who's at the table understands what we're up against. Okay? So I'm jumping off my soapbox,
Lei Xing (40:57)
Yeah, we're both kind of jumping off. But I mean, this was by far the most jarring, I think it was thought provoking. But I mean, couldn't disagree more with what these two association or guys said. It's just.
Tu Le (41:15)
the other thing that I think and Jeffrey brings this up, I'm reminded of this by a quick post by Jeffrey is that the Chinese universities, you and I know over the time that we lived there, universities just popped up. Some of them just wanted government money and they were never really great universities, but young Chinese would go to these universities and get these degrees. Now, there's still
a number of very prestigious universities in China. most of the Chinese, focused on, or I won't say most, a good portion of the Chinese student focuses on STEM. That's not something we focus on. Our math skills aren't as good. And these are just facts. There's no opinions here. These are just facts. And so when you have four times as many people,
Lei Xing (41:51)
Mm-hmm.
Tu Le (42:04)
in a country and then all else being equal, there's just going to be more engineers, man. And then you look at AI, what are most AI researchers? They're Asian. They can be American, but they're ethnically, a lot of them are Asian, whether they're South Asian or Southeast Asian or East Asian. A lot of them are Asian. So that's the reality. That's a fact.
Lei Xing (42:28)
Well...
Tu Le (42:31)
I'm not stating opinions, right? So anyways, man.
Lei Xing (42:34)
Well, I you look at
BYD, I remember this number from BYD's annual report. They had over 120,000 engineers and their R &D investment in 2025 was $62.4 billion RMB
62.4 billion. I mean the number of engineers they have is probably more than the entire US European automakers combined.
Tu Le (43:00)
Yeah, well, so my thing here,
let me, and I kind of mentioned this during our at the wheel this week with Joe, but.
Right when the legacy OEMs really begin to pay attention to the Chinese entering the US market, Nvidia throws its hat in the ring with Alpamayo, with partnering with BYD, with partnering with Geely. this is me talking about the Midwest, not just the United States now.
Nvidia is a $4 trillion company. If they want to enter market, they're probably going to be a leader sooner rather than later. We think of Tesla as this trillion and a half dollar company that could kind of bully all the legacy automakers, and that's what they've done. But Jensen Huang, if he wanted to, could probably bully Tesla. So the car companies have all these frenemies. They have joint venture partners with the Chinese.
that they'll compete with in other markets. And then in the United States, they need to look at Silicon Valley and be like, my goodness, we're buying Silicon. A good portion of our tech stack is dedicated to Nvidia Silicon. And now they're coming in and want to be our frenemy by entering a market. So it's
We need bold decision makers and risk takers in a lot of these companies.
Lei Xing (44:23)
Yeah, I think the US just needs something not exactly the same as what Canada has done, but move forward to go forward, not go back to go forward. That's how it feels.
Tu Le (44:33)
And think of it this way,
Lei Xing (44:33)
because then you're going to be further
lapped by China and other regions.
Tu Le (44:39)
Well, I'll leave it at this, Lei, and I would love your opinion. I've driven Lucids, I've driven Rivians. They are as good as anything the Chinese have. I love the Lucid vehicle. I just can't afford it. You know, with two boys and all this stuff.
Lei Xing (44:54)
Well, Nick Twork will say,
wait for the Cosmos.
Tu Le (44:58)
Yeah, for sure. And
that's why I got a two year lease on my Mach-E But I believe we would just need more Rivians and Lucids. Not Slates, but Rivians and Lucids.
Lei Xing (45:02)
Yeah.
We need great American
EVs. I've tweeted that.
Tu Le (45:14)
So anyways, let's go to comments because I think you and I were a little bit on our soap boxes, or I was anyway, so maybe not you. But I know you want the US to be competitive and succeed too, so this is not my, I don't believe it's my own opinion in between us. So, XPX.
Lei Xing (45:21)
Yeah.
Tu Le (45:39)
Good morning and happy Friday guys. SPX always appreciate you being loyal listener and viewer. So good morning and good afternoon to you. So Dan the Schmidt. I don't know if he's been on the show or done the live thing before, but this might be his first time writing a message. Good morning. I'm still bummed about Tesla canceling the Model X. Looks like demand was still there.
as inventory has already been sold out.
Lei Xing (46:05)
Well, like you said, the Lucid and Model X is not our, we're not the clientele, right.
Tu Le (46:13)
Well, and Dan, the important thing to always remember too is that if Tesla isn't going to invest further in the Model X, and we're talking the Model X, what, a few thousand a year? So it becomes more burdensome for them to keep it in the product lineup from a cost standpoint, from a complexity standpoint.
Lei Xing (46:37)
Yeah,
16,000 other models in Q1 delivered. So that's Cybertruck X and S.
Tu Le (46:49)
Well, I would think that it's maybe a two to one ratio for SX and then Cybertruck, S plus X and then Cybertruck maybe. SPX: due to the war in the Middle East, what impact sourcing transport to the industry have been observed? What other ramifications do you expect it if it drags on months? So you want to start that man?
Lei Xing (47:12)
Wasn't a Chinese ship turned around recently, few days ago in the Strait of Hormuz? So that's still being discussed, right? Because that's partially the reason why the gas prices are going up everywhere in the world, right? Not only gas, but diesel, but other, it's affecting farmers, right?
Tu Le (47:18)
I think so.
Lei Xing (47:30)
And then that's obviously going to drive up. gas prices are going up, right? Which is kind of like an extra incentive, even in China right now, and obviously in the US, to drive more demand. At least people look maybe on the market for EVs.
‚Åì But in China, think it's no longer, it's a market driven competition anyways, regardless of the Iran situation. ‚Åì It's gone past the tipping point.
Tu Le (47:59)
So ‚Åì let me add.
Let me add to that. talked a little about this earlier this week on the other podcast. So helium, a lot of helium comes out of the Middle East. helium is needed for silicon fabrication. Diesel prices have actually gone up twice as high as gas, petrol. So there is a Sky News reporter. His name is Ed Conway.
Lei Xing (48:09)
Right, helium.
Tu Le (48:25)
He does these 10 minute things and he posts them on LinkedIn. He did one on Iran. I would recommend to watch that because he does a really, really good job. He does other 10 minute videos, but this one particular is, SPX is good for Iran. Natural gas is, and a lot of that goes to China, the natural gas.
So there's that that's going to be constrained. And then in the automotive world, like at a GM, what they typically do on the sourcing side, they have three major buckets. They call it chemical, mechanical, and electrical. Chemical, because plastic is a chemical. And what goes into plastic? Petroleum. So everything under those three buckets
Is likely going to increase component pricing across the board is going to increase for the OEMs. OK, and I explained this in the other pod. They have contracts so Lei HVAC. Plastic HVAC supplier. I Tu motors buys from Lei. OK, so you inject mold and HVAC.
system and then you sell it to me. Now your pricing has gone up. Okay. Your, raw materials pricing has gone up. What normally is in the contract between you and I is you eat anything that is above or below 10 % of a price increase or commodity price increase for you. If after 10%, you can come back to me and request a price increase. Okay. So
So that's likely going to happen over the course of the next several months if the Iran war continues. There's going to be price increases on the components for every OEM. Because remember, it's not just the gas that's costing us more at the pump. It's the component pricing that is going to put pressure, upward pressure on component pricing. And then, you know,
We took out CAFE standards in the United States. So the D2.5 were licking their chops. We're going to sell more Rams. We're going to sell more Tahoes, Silverados, and F-150s. So with the pricing the way they are, and if pricing gets to $5 a gallon, will we see the D2.5 put money on the hood, discounting sales of these big SUVs?
That's a possibility in the next several months because of the Iran war. hopefully, SPX, that gives you a much better idea of what we should see increasing in price in basically everything. Why would EV company? SSJJ, who's also been
Lei Xing (51:14)
I'm glad I no longer have to the ASEAN.
Tu Le (51:20)
loyal viewer,
why would EV companies like Xiaomi, Xpeng want to enter EREV when we all know that those segments are shrinking and future market size and growth estimates all suggest EV segments will be biggest?
Lei Xing (51:33)
It's still I mean, EREVs is still
still such a big component of this transition at this point. think if you listen in on William Li when he talks in the earnings calls, he would always point to the BEV's large SUVs actually growing much faster than the extended range versions. But there's still a big market there. I think you're going to see Xiaomi going in there, Xpeng obviously.
cost. There's still people that want these 1500 kilometer range vehicles and when you don't have the moat as NIO does with this battery swapping obviously you want longer ranges.
When are we going to see a completely transition? I don't think it's, it's a short time period. it's, it's, I mean, Volkswagen, they're late to the game, but they're launching, they're depending on this ID ERA 9X to be a hit out of the ballpark to give them some momentum. But I'm still,
kind of, you know, I have sweaty hands looking at the ID series how they do because they're now 300,000, 400,000, RMB range, how much more options you can have in that price range of other EREVs and other BEVs look at, mean, NIO ES8, they just delivered 90,000. They just delivered another 10,000 units in the last two weeks.
Tu Le (53:01)
Here's my quick take.
Lei Xing (53:01)
Yeah, sometimes we
don't even have the answers. It's just...
Tu Le (53:04)
Here's my quick hit, SSJJ005. It's a product strategy. A lot of companies want to have, want to cover most of the market, meaning that if I only sell a BEV, there's a portion of the market that I'm not addressing. I think there's a product strategy aspect to it.
Lei, you hit the nail on the head of the United States. We have different use cases, big trucks, heavy trucks that we can't build a bunch of Hummers, okay, with 120 kilowatt hour battery. Okay. And then if we think about emerging markets, Latin America, things like that, the grid might not handle BEVs. Okay. And the investment needed to upgrade grids to, to, ‚Åì
invest in charging infrastructure. A lot of countries can't afford that on their own. so EREVs gets them cleaner, but doesn't go whole hog. And I believe we need to look at the established mature markets like Europe, the United States, North America, to a lesser extent, Canada and the United States within North America as more of the BEV embracing. And then EREVs kind of
in the emerging markets where it might be more challenging to invest heavily into the grid, invest heavily into charging infrastructure.
Lei Xing (54:23)
So, yeah.
So Ford is launching their next platform as an EREV, right? This new pickup. Hyundai is launching EREVs So think about this. The EREV market probably in the next two years are gonna take off in the US. And what better options to have some of these Chinese EREVs in the US?
Tu Le (54:47)
you raise a good point, SSJJ, but it'll depend on how fast battery technology and charging technology continues to advance. I think that's the wild card.
Good morning. Do you think BYD would recover its sales volumes in its home market of China this year?
Lei Xing (55:07)
Does it have to?
Tu Le (55:08)
The market's
not forecast to the growth.
Lei Xing (55:11)
So there's few things, right? You wanna be profitable. Where is your most profitable business? Likely overseas better than in China. And to be a global company, it's not that out of the question that you sell more outside of China than in China.
By the same time, yes. This is where we want to see how much of that 1.5 million accounts as a share of their total sales. Is this going to be a significant more portion? Can they get their domestic sales back? And one of the things they're doing, they're building 2,000 these flash charging stations this year.
Tu Le (55:47)
20.
Lei Xing (55:48)
Was it 20,000 or 2000? 20,000? Maybe one extra zero, but think about that. That's one of the ‚Åì selling points that you want to have almost like Tesla's supercharger network, a moat, right? That, okay, now we think we can attract more customers to our brands. Actually, Fang Cheng Bao is actually doing quite well in recent months, right?
Tu Le (55:49)
I think it's 20. I think it's 20. Yeah.
Lei Xing (56:12)
‚Åì It comes down products. Yeah, it comes down down the products
Tu Le (56:12)
starting to find their groove. I think Denza
has really great products that haven't really resonated, but design-wise, they look great.
So I would add, Lei, I want to see if the China market actually grows in any significant way. I'd be more keen to know whether or not BYD grows faster than the market than looking at sales recovery. I think sales recovery is important, but are they growing better than the market? Because to me, that builds momentum.
And, and so, and this is where I'll diverge from you a little bit, Lei. I think strength in the domestic market via sales is, is a good indicator of whether BYD should do well outside. They, they, because they're going to do well outside because they're in a hundred markets. Okay. But if we drill down, does that mean they're growing in every single market?
because that really is really what's important for me to see from them because there's going to be markets where they do struggle. And so if they can't protect their home market, then I think that it's going to be a struggle for them outside of their home market. ‚Åì
Lei Xing (57:33)
And it's
the most difficult year by far this year, following last year.
Tu Le (57:37)
How do you compare Huawei's autonomous system to the latest FSD? How do you rate? I haven't, I'll be frank, I haven't tried Huawei system. I'm gonna do it when I'm in Beijing. So we should talk to AITO. Maybe we try Huawei out. Seriously, when we're back, know, maybe we try Ito. Jeffrey, go Firefly. Good to see Ganesh.
Lei Xing (57:47)
I'm an aether.
Tu Le (58:02)
On center stage, Lei. So was he in New York? Okay.
Lei Xing (58:05)
Yeah, he delivered
a message on behalf of Daniel Jin, who's the CEO of Firefly. ‚Åì Yeah. But no, we were actually discussing, know, Li Bin should have paid to get a Firefly to show on the floor. You know, don't save that money. was like, I know, I NIO is very cost conscious these days because of they want to get to break even this year, right, full year.
Tu Le (58:13)
Okay.
Okay.
Well,
I think the US market for NIO is probably not as close as an XPeng or a BYD or a Geely or a ZEEKR.
Lei Xing (58:34)
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
But that's what I was saying,
that they win this award in the US, awarded in the US, yet they're not in the US, yet the US EV penetration is going down. It's very strange.
Tu Le (58:50)
‚Åì Stellantis looking at building LeapMotor EVs at its idle Brampton factory in Canada. That's right, yep. Stellantis looking at the possibility of building LeapMotor yep. Okay. here's Jeffrey again. Managing that relationship is like having a, okay. He laughed about that. Send more spray tan to the White House. It's certainly cheap to buy. It's not normal world right now. It is not a normal world. PFC Cutters.
Lei Xing (58:58)
Yeah, we talked about that.
That's it.
Tu Le (59:18)
Cnery QQ3 with the early 20k also as well. yeah, think he's referring to what it will cost outside of China. SPX D3 didn't give up and disappear when the Japanese and Korean entered US. Why would it be different this time?
Lei Xing (59:21)
Yeah.
Tu Le (59:34)
Yeah, they would have to adjust. I think that, you know, I think the assumption is that Americans would across the board love every single Chinese brand. And that's not going to be the case. So.
Lei Xing (59:37)
Sorry.
Right. mean, it's, and the Hyundai is here, Toyota is here, right? why not, you know, Chinese can't be here and everybody's happy and everybody's competing.
Tu Le (59:47)
And then Jeffrey.
What what
I think the concern is that it is zero sum because the United States is a pretty mature market, so there's not going to be a ton of growth. so the Chinese would take share. Who they would take it from is still up for debate. You would think that they would take it from Toyota and Hyundai a little bit because they do play in the sedan side and the smaller car side, but it would just create a wedge. And then you look at
the big SUVs that Hyundai wants to do a pickup now. And the Chinese have all these great luxury SUVs that I think would eventually sell well in the United States as well. Jeffrey, Neo Park is pretty amazing. I can't wait to go back again. Tim Cook states, it's not necessarily about the cost of labor, but the availability of skilled labor. Perhaps misunderstand this. The thing about the Asian culture is many are very satisfied.
and it shows, look at the Chinese OEMs. Apreza, hey Apreza, thanks for joining us. There is news that BYD Seal 06 also gets 10C fast charging. And then S, yeah, I'm not sure. Yeah, I think it was 12 too, but I could be wrong.
Lei Xing (1:01:00)
I thought it was 12C.
Tu Le (1:01:08)
SPX to put more of an upbeat note on the discussion hypothetical situation well built out megawatt flash charge network and BaaS network in USA who wins the cannonball race. ‚Åì I think that swapping would win.
Lei Xing (1:01:21)
Ha ha!
Probably swapping. Yeah.
Tu Le (1:01:26)
You know, but it would have to be. Yeah, you know those cannonball guys. They really, really do take the time to plan out their route and so. It would be pretty cool. They should do something like that in China, obviously, right? I mean, but you would get thrown in jail really, really quickly. So anyways, everyone.
Lei Xing (1:01:43)
Yeah, driving from Beijing to Shenzhen.
Tu Le (1:01:48)
It's been a long episode. I didn't think it was going to be this long. I went on a rant, and Lei, you went on a rant a little bit too. yeah. Everyone, we will catch you all next week. Thanks for joining us, as always. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening.
Lei Xing (1:01:53)
Yeah, both of us did a little bit.
Alright.